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Week 5 •
Razorback Stadium

Notre Dame56 @FINAL 13Arkansas

1-2 Independent Power rating: 24.4
2-2 SEC Power rating: 7.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ND -5.5
PM Implied
ND -3.6
Blue Chip model
ND -15.7
Edge
-10.2ND
See details
◂ favors NDfavors ARK ▸Market: ND -5.5
‹ 16.5 ND
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARK
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 ND5 ARK10 ND10 ARKModel: ND -15.7

Betting information

Spread
ND -5.5
Total
64.5
Odds implied score
ND 35.0 – 29.5 ARK
Prediction markets
ND 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Notre Dame defeated Arkansas 56–13 in a dominant performance. Notre Dame covered by 37.5; Game went Over by 4.5. The market closed at Notre Dame -5.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Notre Dame -15.7 - a gap of 10.2 points toward Notre Dame, of which 9.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Notre Dame vs Arkansas?

Notre Dame

Offensive Explosion Led by Freshman QB

CJ Carr matched a Notre Dame freshman record with 4 TD passes, throwing for 354 yards and leading scoring drives of 75+ yards on six possessions in the first half. The offense amassed 643 total yards, showing explosive potential after early-season struggles.

Balanced Attack with Multiple Weapons

Jeremiyah Love contributed 2 receiving TDs and 2 rushing TDs, while Jadarian Price added a receiving and rushing score. The versatility of the run game and passing attack makes Notre Dame difficult to defend, especially with Carr distributing the ball effectively.

Defensive Dominance and Turnover Creation

Notre Dame's defense held Arkansas to 207 passing yards and forced a key fumble late in the second half, setting up a quick TD before halftime. The unit limited the Razorbacks to 13 points, showcasing improvement after early-season losses.

Resilience After Early-Season Setbacks

After starting 0-2 with losses to Miami and Texas A&M, Notre Dame has won two straight, including a dominant road victory. The team has bounced back from criticism and is building momentum, though CFP hopes remain slim.

Next Week: Home Test Against Boise State

Notre Dame hosts Boise State on Saturday. The Fighting Irish will look to continue their offensive rhythm and defensive improvement against a Boise State team that is typically competitive. Key will be maintaining focus and avoiding a letdown after a big win.

What were the weather conditions for Notre Dame vs Arkansas?

At kickoff, conditions at Razorback Stadium were Sunny, 78°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Notre Dame travels 578 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Notre Dame arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Notre Dame won by 43 in a dominant performance.

Notre Dame covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

How do Notre Dame and Arkansas compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Notre Dame (24.4) over Arkansas (7.9) by 16.5 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 0.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Notre Dame and Arkansas?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Notre Dame won and Notre Dame covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity55%
Wind4 mph NNW
Gusts5 mph
Wind map for Notre Dame at Arkansas: aerial view of Razorback Stadium, wind from the NNW at 4.3 mph, gusting to 4.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Razorback Stadium
Capacity
76,212
Elevation
1,358 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Notre DameAway ArkansasHome
This week578 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game491 miles
Season total2,853 miles1,066 miles
Body clock12:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days

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