Week 5
Mountain America Stadium

TCU24 @FINAL 27Arizona State , Week 5, Sep 27, 2025

3-0 Big 12 Power rating: 11.8
3-1 Big 12 Power rating: 9.8

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ASU -3.0
PM Implied
ASU -2.1
Blue Chip model
ASU -0.9
Edge
-2.1TCU
See details
◂ favors TCUfavors ASU ▸Market: ASU -3.0
TCU
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ASU
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ASU
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1 TCU1 ASU2 TCU2 ASUModel: ASU -0.9

Betting information

Spread
ASU -3.0
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
TCU 25.8 – 28.8 ASU
Prediction markets
ASU 59% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arizona State defeated TCU 27–24 in a nail-biter. Push covered by 0.0; Game went Under by 3.5. The market closed at Arizona State -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Arizona State -0.9, an edge of 2.1 points toward TCU.

What are the key factors for TCU vs Arizona State?

Arizona State

Resilient Comeback Ability

Arizona State overcame a 17-0 deficit for the second time in three games, showing mental toughness and ability to rally under pressure. This resilience could be key against Utah's strong defense.

Sam Leavitt's Clutch Performance

Leavitt threw for 278 yards and two touchdowns, including a game-tying 4-yard pass to Jordyn Tyson with 1:50 left. His dual-threat capability (24-yard scramble, 8-yard TD run) will be crucial against Utah's defense.

Special Teams Inconsistency

Kicker Jesus Gomez missed two field goals (46, 43 yards) and a punt was mishandled, but he hit the game-winner. This inconsistency could be a liability in close games, especially on the road at Utah.

Defensive Playmaking

The defense forced three turnovers, including a strip sack by Prince Dorbuh that set up the winning field goal, and a game-sealing interception by Martell Hughes. This turnover generation will be vital against Utah's offense.

Raleek Brown's Ground Game

Brown rushed for 147 yards, providing a balanced attack. However, the running game struggled early, and against Utah's stout run defense, consistency on the ground will be critical.

What were the weather conditions for TCU vs Arizona State?

At kickoff, conditions at Mountain America Stadium were Thundery outbreaks possible, 77°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

TCU travels 846 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Arizona State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Push covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 3.5 points.

How do TCU and Arizona State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor TCU (11.8) over Arizona State (9.8) by 2.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arizona State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arizona State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Arizona State won and Push covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Thundery outbreaks possible

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity69%
Wind8 mph ESE
Gusts12 mph
Wind map for TCU at Arizona State: aerial view of Mountain America Stadium, wind from the ESE at 8.1 mph, gusting to 11.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM MST
Venue
Mountain America Stadium
Capacity
53,599
Elevation
1,220 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure TCUAway Arizona StateHome
This week846 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,748 miles
Season total2,984 miles4,416 miles
Body clock20:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days