Week 5
FirstBank Stadium

Utah State35 @FINAL 55Vanderbilt , Week 5, Sep 27, 2025

3-1 MW Power rating: -5.4
4-0 SEC Power rating: 17.3

How did the line hold up?

Market line
VAN -23.5
PM Implied
VAN -15.9
Blue Chip model
VAN -24.5
Edge
+1.0VAN
See details
◂ favors USUfavors VAN ▸Market: VAN -23.5
22.7 › VAN
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1 USU1 VAN2 USU2 VANModel: VAN -24.5

Betting information

Spread
VAN -23.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
USU 17.0 – 40.5 VAN
Prediction markets
VAN 92% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Vanderbilt defeated Utah State 55–35 to secure a comfortable win. Utah State covered by 3.5; Game went Over by 32.5. The market closed at Vanderbilt -23.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Vanderbilt -24.5, an edge of 1.0 points toward Vanderbilt.

What are the key factors for Utah State vs Vanderbilt?

Utah State

First-half competitiveness but second-half collapse

Utah State kept pace with Vanderbilt in the first half, leading twice and scoring three touchdowns, but was held to 15 total yards in the third quarter and allowed 55 points overall.

Bryson Barnes' performance and pressure issues

Quarterback Bryson Barnes threw for 161 yards and three touchdowns in the first half, but the offense stalled in the second half due to Vanderbilt's defense, which sacked him three times and forced seven hurries.

Defensive struggles against explosive offense

The Aggies allowed Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia to throw five touchdown passes and run for another, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by future opponents.

Next game: at Hawaii on Oct. 11

Utah State will travel to Hawaii for their next game, needing to address second-half consistency and defensive pressure to avoid a similar collapse.

What were the weather conditions for Utah State vs Vanderbilt?

At kickoff, conditions at FirstBank Stadium were Partly cloudy, 78°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Utah State travels 1,396 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Utah State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Vanderbilt won by 20 to secure a comfortable win.

Utah State covered the spread.

The total went Over by 32.5 points.

How do Utah State and Vanderbilt compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Vanderbilt (17.3) over Utah State (-5.4) by 22.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Vanderbilt brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Vanderbilt won and Utah State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity54%
Wind7 mph NNW
Gusts8 mph
Wind map for Utah State at Vanderbilt: aerial view of FirstBank Stadium, wind from the NNW at 6.7 mph, gusting to 8.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
11:45 AM CDT
Venue
FirstBank Stadium
Capacity
40,350
Elevation
551 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Utah StateAway VanderbiltHome
This week1,396 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total3,702 miles1,446 miles
Body clock10:4511:45
Rest6 days7 days