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Week 5 •
Albertsons Stadium

App State14 @FINAL 47Boise State

2-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -10.9
2-1 MW Power rating: 7.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BOIS -16.5
PM Implied
BOIS -11.8
Blue Chip model
BOIS -21.6
Edge
+5.1BOIS
See details
◂ favors APPfavors BOIS ▸Market: BOIS -16.5
18.6 › BOIS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BOIS
APP
BOIS
no impact
no impact
2 APP2 BOIS4 APP4 BOIS6 APP6 BOISModel: BOIS -21.6

Betting information

Spread
BOIS -16.5
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
APP 21.5 – 38.0 BOIS
Prediction markets
BOIS 86% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Boise State defeated App State 47–14 in a dominant performance. Boise State covered by 16.5; Game went Over by 1.5. The market closed at Boise State -16.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Boise State -21.6 - a gap of 5.1 points toward Boise State, of which 3.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for App State vs Boise State?

At kickoff, conditions at Albertsons Stadium were Clear, 60°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

App State travels 1,888 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Boise State won by 33 in a dominant performance.

Boise State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 1.5 points.

How do App State and Boise State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Boise State (7.7) over App State (-10.9) by 18.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Boise State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on App State and Boise State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Boise State won and Boise State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Clear

60°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity24%
Wind5 mph E
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for App State at Boise State: aerial view of Albertsons Stadium, wind from the E at 5.4 mph, gusting to 11.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
05:30 PM MDT
Venue
Albertsons Stadium
Capacity
36,387
Elevation
2,723 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

App StateAway Boise StateHome
This week1,888 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week1,340 miles
Season total3,161 miles5,653 miles
Body clock19:3017:30
Rest14 days7 days

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