DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Louisville defeated Pittsburgh 34–27 in a one-score game. Louisville covered by 4.0; Game went Over by 7.5. The market closed at Louisville -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Pittsburgh -0.5 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Pittsburgh, of which 2.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Louisville overcame a 17-point first-quarter deficit and a 10-point halftime deficit to win 34-27, demonstrating strong character and ability to regroup under pressure.
Quarterback Miller Moss threw for 339 yards and three touchdowns, including two in the fourth quarter, and added a rushing touchdown, bouncing back from an early interception returned for a touchdown.
The Louisville defense shut out Pittsburgh in the final two quarters, forcing two interceptions (one setting up the go-ahead score) and allowing the offense to complete the comeback.
A controversial punt play where Pitt's returner touched a live ball after a fair catch signal allowed Louisville to recover inside the five-yard line, leading to a crucial touchdown that shifted momentum.
Louisville hosts Virginia next Saturday, looking to build on their unbeaten start and first ACC win, with momentum from a gritty road victory.
Pitt led 17-0 in the first quarter and 27-17 at halftime, but were outscored 17-0 in the second half, losing 34-27. This marks their seventh straight loss to Power Four teams since a 7-0 start last season, showing a pattern of late-game failures.
Starter Eli Holstein threw two interceptions, including one that set up Louisville's go-ahead touchdown, and was pulled for Cole Gonzales in the fourth quarter. Coach Narduzzi stated Holstein remains the starter, but the QB situation is uncertain heading into next week.
A controversial punt play in the second quarter saw Pitt's returner signal fair catch but then chase the ball, leading to a fumble recovered by Louisville at the Pitt 5-yard line. This gave the Cardinals a short field and a touchdown, shifting momentum.
After a strong first half, Pitt's defense allowed 17 unanswered points in the second half, including two fourth-quarter touchdown passes. They failed to force a stop when needed, contributing to the collapse.
Pitt hosts Boston College next Saturday. To win, they must avoid another second-half collapse, stabilize quarterback play, and clean up special teams errors. The team's confidence may be fragile after another blown lead.
At kickoff, conditions at Acrisure Stadium were Cloudy, 76°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Cloudy
76°F
| Measure | LouisvilleAway | PittsburghHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 344 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | Bye week |
| Season total | 344 miles | 110 miles |
| Body clock | 12:00 | 12:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | 14 days |
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