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Week 5 •
Plaster Sports Complex

Western Kentucky27 @FINAL 22Missouri State

3-1 CUSA Power rating: -12.5
2-2 CUSA Power rating: -13.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
WKU -3.5
PM Implied
WKU -3.3
Blue Chip model
MOST -1.6
Edge
+5.1MOST
See details
◂ favors WKUfavors MOST ▸Market: WKU -3.5
WKU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MOST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 WKU2 MOST4 WKU4 MOST6 WKU6 MOSTModel: MOST -1.6

Betting information

Spread
WKU -3.5
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
WKU 31.5 – 28.0 MOST
Prediction markets
WKU 63% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Western Kentucky defeated Missouri State 27–22 in a closely contested finish. Western Kentucky covered by 1.5; Game went Under by 10.5. The market closed at Western Kentucky -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Missouri State -1.6 - a gap of 5.1 points toward Missouri State, of which 4.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Western Kentucky vs Missouri State?

At kickoff, conditions at Plaster Sports Complex were Cloudy, 65°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Western Kentucky travels 377 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Western Kentucky won by 5 in a closely contested finish.

Western Kentucky covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 10.5 points.

How do Western Kentucky and Missouri State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Western Kentucky (-12.5) over Missouri State (-13.4) by 0.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Missouri State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Missouri State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Western Kentucky and Missouri State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Western Kentucky won and Western Kentucky covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

65°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity78%
Wind3 mph SSW
Gusts7 mph
Wind map for Western Kentucky at Missouri State: aerial view of Plaster Sports Complex, wind from the SSW at 3.4 mph, gusting to 6.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CDT
Venue
Plaster Sports Complex
Capacity
17,500
Elevation
1,339 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Western KentuckyAway Missouri StateHome
This week377 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total1,090 miles4,041 miles
Body clock18:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

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