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Week 5 • September 27, 2025, 11:00 PM UTC
Western Kentucky @ Missouri State
3-1
CUSA
Power Rank: -12.5
27 FINAL 22
2-2
CUSA
Power Rank: -13.4
Missouri State covered by 0.5 | Game went Under by 11.5

By · Last updated

Western Kentucky defeated Missouri State 27–22 in a closely contested finish.

Western Kentucky @ Missouri State Preview

General Information

Week: Week 5
Kick Off (at stadium): 06:00 PM CDT
Stadium: Plaster Sports Complex
Capacity: 17,500
Elevation: 1339 ft
HFA Rating: 2.5
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Western Kentucky -5.5
Total (O/U) 60.5
Expected Score WKU 33.0 - 27.5 MOST
Power Rank Implied Line Western Kentucky +0.9
Prediction Markets Western Kentucky 63% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

27.7°F

Wind Chill: 22.3°F
Wind: 4.7 mph NNE
Gusts: 9.4 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 90%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Western Kentucky (Away)

This Week: 377.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 1089.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:00
Rest Days: 7

Missouri State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 4041.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 18:00
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Western Kentucky -5.5
Total Points 60.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Western Kentucky -12.5
Missouri State -13.4
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 377 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: Plaster Sports Complex
Capacity 17,500
Elevation 1339 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 27.7°F
Wind Speed 4.7 mph
Your Line Missouri State -0.9
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Western Kentucky vs Missouri State?

Western Kentucky: Key Factors

Missouri State: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Western Kentucky travels 377 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Western Kentucky won by 5 in a closely contested finish.

Missouri State covered the spread, covering narrowly.

The total went Under by 11.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Plaster Sports Complex?

At 27.7°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Western Kentucky and Missouri State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Western Kentucky (-12.5) over Missouri State (-13.4) by 0.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Missouri State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Missouri State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Western Kentucky and Missouri State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Western Kentucky won and Missouri State covered the spread.