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Week 5 • September 27, 2025, 07:30 PM UTC
UConn @ Buffalo
2-2
Independent
Power Rank: -5.2
20 FINAL 17
2-2
MAC
Power Rank: -11.2
UConn covered by 0.5 | Game went Under by 14.5

By · Last updated

UConn defeated Buffalo 20–17 in a nail-biter.

UConn @ Buffalo Preview

General Information

Week: Week 5
Kick Off (at stadium): 03:30 PM EDT
Stadium: UB Stadium
Capacity: 25,013
Elevation: 600 ft
HFA Rating: 2.4
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread UConn -2.5
Total (O/U) 51.5
Expected Score CONN 27.0 - 24.5 BUF
Power Rank Implied Line UConn +6.0
Prediction Markets UConn 61% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Heavy snow

Heavy snow

24.8°F

Wind Chill: 13.1°F
Wind: 13.4 mph WSW
Gusts: 20.3 mph
Precipitation: 0.01"
Humidity: 95%
Rain Chance: 100%
Snow Chance: 100%

Travel & Rest

UConn (Away)

This Week: 326.5 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 3450.6 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:30
Rest Days: 7

Buffalo (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 1829.8 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:30
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line UConn -2.5
Total Points 51.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
UConn -5.2
Buffalo -11.2
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 326 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: UB Stadium
Capacity 25,013
Elevation 600 ft
Weather: Heavy snow
Temperature 24.8°F
Wind Speed 13.4 mph
Your Line Buffalo -6.0
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for UConn vs Buffalo?

UConn: Key Factors

Buffalo: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

UConn travels 326 miles to this game, a short road trip.

UConn won by 3 in a nail-biter.

UConn covered the spread, covering narrowly.

The total went Under by 14.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at UB Stadium?

At 24.8°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do UConn and Buffalo compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour UConn (-5.2) over Buffalo (-11.2) by 6.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Buffalo faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Buffalo brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on UConn and Buffalo?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

UConn won and UConn covered the spread.