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Week 5 •
Reser Stadium

Houston27 @FINAL 24Oregon State

3-0 Big 12 Power rating: 6.6
0-4 Pac-12 Power rating: -8.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
HOU -11.5
PM Implied
HOU -9.9
Blue Chip model
HOU -11.6
Edge
-0.1HOU
See details
◂ favors HOUfavors ORST ▸Market: HOU -11.5
‹ 15.4 HOU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ORST
HOU
ORST
no impact
no impact
2 HOU2 ORST4 HOU4 ORSTModel: HOU -11.6

Betting information

Spread
HOU -11.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
HOU 30.0 – 18.5 ORST
Prediction markets
HOU 83% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Houston defeated Oregon State 27–24 in a nail-biter. Oregon State covered by 8.5; Game went Over by 2.5. The market closed at Houston -11.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Houston -11.6. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Houston vs Oregon State?

Oregon State

Fourth Quarter Collapse

Oregon State led 24-10 entering the fourth quarter but allowed Houston to score 17 unanswered points, including two long touchdown passes, to force overtime and eventually lose. The Beavers' inability to maintain their dominant performance for a full four quarters cost them the game.

Strong Start and Defensive Stand

Oregon State built a 14-0 lead in the first half, highlighted by a Trey Glasper interception return to the 7-yard line and a goal-line stand that held Houston to a field goal. The defense was effective for three and a half quarters, forcing four straight three-and-outs in the second half before the late collapse.

Offensive Struggles in Key Moments

Quarterback Maalik Murphy threw for 201 yards and a touchdown, but the offense failed to convert a critical fourth-and-1 in overtime, ending their possession without points. Additionally, backup kicker Cameron Smith's potential game-winning 46-yard field goal was blocked at the end of regulation.

Winless Start and Urgency

The loss drops Oregon State to 0-5, their worst start in recent memory. The team has shown flashes of competitiveness but has been unable to close out games, highlighting a need for improved execution in crunch time as they head into a road game at Appalachian State.

Next Week's Challenge at Appalachian State

Oregon State will visit Appalachian State next Saturday, needing to address their fourth-quarter issues and find a way to secure their first win. The Beavers must focus on finishing games and maintaining their defensive intensity for all four quarters to compete against a solid Sun Belt opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Houston vs Oregon State?

At kickoff, conditions at Reser Stadium were Clear, 52°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Houston travels 1,836 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Houston won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Oregon State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 2.5 points.

How do Houston and Oregon State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Houston (6.6) over Oregon State (-8.8) by 15.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Oregon State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Oregon State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Houston and Oregon State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Houston won and Oregon State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Clear

52°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity78%
Wind4 mph N
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Houston at Oregon State: aerial view of Reser Stadium, wind from the N at 4.3 mph, gusting to 8.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM PDT
Venue
Reser Stadium
Capacity
35,548
Elevation
233 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

HoustonAway Oregon StateHome
This week1,836 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week72 miles
Season total1,843 miles2,814 miles
Body clock21:3019:30
Rest15 days7 days

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