Week 5
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

California28 @FINAL 24Boston College , Week 5, Sep 27, 2025

3-1 ACC Power rating: -4.5
1-2 ACC Power rating: -5.0

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BC -6.0
PM Implied
BC -4.3
Blue Chip model
BC -3.3
Edge
-2.7CAL
See details
◂ favors CALfavors BC ▸Market: BC -6.0
CAL
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1 CAL1 BC2 CAL2 BC3 CAL3 BCModel: BC -3.3

Betting information

Spread
BC -6.0
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
CAL 24.3 – 30.3 BC
Prediction markets
BC 66% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

California defeated Boston College 28–24 in a closely contested finish. California covered by 10.0; Game went Under by 2.5. The market closed at Boston College -6.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Boston College -3.3, an edge of 2.7 points toward California.

What are the key factors for California vs Boston College?

Boston College

Late-game collapse costs victory

Boston College led 24-21 after a 71-yard TD run by Turbo Richard early in the fourth quarter, but allowed a 51-yard game-winning TD pass with 1:30 left and then had a potential go-ahead TD pass dropped in the end zone, followed by a game-sealing interception.

Quarterback struggles under pressure

Dylan Lonergan completed 21 of 37 passes for 197 yards but threw two interceptions, including a crucial pick in the end zone with 15 seconds left. He also had a potential TD pass dropped, highlighting inconsistency in the passing game.

Running game shows promise

Turbo Richard rushed for 171 yards on 15 carries, including a 71-yard go-ahead TD run, providing a strong ground attack that could be key in upcoming games.

Defensive lapses in critical moments

The defense allowed a 51-yard TD pass on a broken play and failed to stop Cal on a key fourth-and-1 that led to a go-ahead score, showing vulnerability in high-leverage situations.

Urgent need for improvement before tough schedule

With upcoming games at Pitt, then home vs Clemson, followed by Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and SMU, the Eagles must address late-game execution and turnovers to avoid further losses.

What were the weather conditions for California vs Boston College?

At kickoff, conditions at Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) were Clear, 71°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

California travels 2,683 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

California won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

California covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 2.5 points.

How do California and Boston College compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor California (-4.5) over Boston College (-5.0) by 0.5 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Boston College faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Boston College brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

California won and California covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Clear

71°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity68%
Wind6 mph SE
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for California at Boston College: aerial view of Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA), wind from the SE at 5.8 mph, gusting to 10.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Capacity
44,500
Elevation
164 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure CaliforniaAway Boston CollegeHome
This week2,683 miles0 miles
Last week909 milesBye week
Season total4,522 miles6,741 miles
Body clock12:3015:30
Rest6 days13 days