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Week 5 •
Huskie Stadium

San Diego State6 @FINAL 3Northern Illinois

2-1 MW Power rating: 2.0
1-2 MAC Power rating: -12.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SDSU -1.5
PM Implied
SDSU -0.8
Blue Chip model
SDSU -12.5
Edge
-11.0SDSU
See details
◂ favors SDSUfavors NIU ▸Market: SDSU -1.5
‹ 14.3 SDSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NIU
no impact
NIU
no impact
no impact
5 SDSU5 NIU10 SDSU10 NIUModel: SDSU -12.5

Betting information

Spread
SDSU -1.5
Total
41.5
Odds implied score
SDSU 21.5 – 20.0 NIU
Prediction markets
SDSU 54% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

San Diego State defeated Northern Illinois 6–3 in a nail-biter. San Diego State covered by 1.5; Game went Under by 32.5. The market closed at San Diego State -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it San Diego State -12.5 - a gap of 11.0 points toward San Diego State, of which 9.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for San Diego State vs Northern Illinois?

At kickoff, conditions at Huskie Stadium were Clear, 74°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

San Diego State travels 1,673 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

San Diego State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

San Diego State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 32.5 points.

How do San Diego State and Northern Illinois compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor San Diego State (2.0) over Northern Illinois (-12.3) by 14.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Northern Illinois faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Northern Illinois brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on San Diego State and Northern Illinois?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

San Diego State won and San Diego State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Clear

74°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity56%
Wind9 mph WNW
Gusts18 mph
Wind map for San Diego State at Northern Illinois: aerial view of Huskie Stadium, wind from the WNW at 8.5 mph, gusting to 17.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Huskie Stadium
Capacity
28,211
Elevation
896 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

San Diego StateAway Northern IllinoisHome
This week1,673 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,169 miles
Season total3,598 miles2,480 miles
Body clock12:3014:30
Rest6 days7 days

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