Week 14 •
M. M. Roberts Stadium

Troy28 @FINAL 18Southern Miss , Week 14, Nov 29, 2025

7-4 Sun Belt Power rating: -2.3
7-4 Sun Belt Power rating: -3.2

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USM -7.0
PM Implied
USM -4.7
Blue Chip model
USM -1.6
Edge
-5.4TROY
See details
◂ favors TROYfavors USM ▸Market: USM -7.0
TROY
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USM
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 TROY2 USM4 TROY4 USM6 TROY6 USMModel: USM -1.6

Betting information

Spread
USM -7.0
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
TROY 21.8 – 28.8 USM
Prediction markets
USM 68% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Troy defeated Southern Miss 28–18 in a double-digit victory. Troy covered by 17.0; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Southern Miss -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Southern Miss -1.6 - a gap of 5.4 points toward Troy, of which 4.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Troy vs Southern Miss?

Southern Miss

Offensive Struggles in the Red Zone

Southern Miss managed only 18 points despite 209 passing yards and a touchdown from Braylon Braxton. The offense stalled in the red zone, settling for field goals or failing to convert drives into touchdowns, which limited their ability to keep pace with Troy.

Defensive Lapses on Big Plays

The defense allowed three touchdown passes from Goose Crowder, including a 75-yard strike to RaRa Thomas. These explosive plays undermined otherwise solid defensive efforts, as Troy capitalized on coverage breakdowns to extend drives and secure the win.

Turnover and Momentum Shift

A fumble recovery by Kadinn Morris in the end zone late in the third quarter pulled Southern Miss within 14-10, providing a crucial momentum swing. However, the offense could not sustain drives afterward, and the defense allowed a decisive 85-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.

Late-Game Execution Issues

Southern Miss entered the fourth quarter trailing by only four points but failed to score again after the fumble recovery touchdown. The offense went three-and-out on two key possessions, and the defense could not stop Troy's game-sealing drive, highlighting late-game execution problems.

Three-Game Losing Streak to End Season

The loss marked Southern Miss's third consecutive defeat to close the regular season, dropping them to 7-5 overall and 5-3 in Sun Belt play. This skid raises concerns about team morale and consistency heading into a potential bowl game, where they will need to address offensive and defensive vulnerabilities.

What were the weather conditions for Troy vs Southern Miss?

At kickoff, conditions at M. M. Roberts Stadium were Cloudy, 56°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Troy travels 202 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Troy won by 10 in a double-digit victory.

Troy covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do Troy and Southern Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Troy (-2.3) over Southern Miss (-3.2) by 0.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Southern Miss faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Southern Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Troy won and Troy covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

56°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity73%
Wind7 mph SE
Gusts15 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Troy at Southern Miss: aerial view of M. M. Roberts Stadium, wind from the SE at 7.2 mph, gusting to 14.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CST
Venue
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Capacity
36,000
Elevation
233 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure TroyAway Southern MissHome
This week202 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game161 miles
Season total5,947 miles2,484 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days