Troy defeated Southern Miss 28–18 in a double-digit victory. Troy covered by 17.0; Game went Under by 4.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at M. M. Roberts Stadium were Cloudy, 55.8°F, Wind Chill 54.3°F with winds of 7.2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
55.8°F
Southern Miss managed only 18 points despite 209 passing yards and a touchdown from Braylon Braxton. The offense stalled in the red zone, settling for field goals or failing to convert drives into touchdowns, which limited their ability to keep pace with Troy.
The defense allowed three touchdown passes from Goose Crowder, including a 75-yard strike to RaRa Thomas. These explosive plays undermined otherwise solid defensive efforts, as Troy capitalized on coverage breakdowns to extend drives and secure the win.
A fumble recovery by Kadinn Morris in the end zone late in the third quarter pulled Southern Miss within 14-10, providing a crucial momentum swing. However, the offense could not sustain drives afterward, and the defense allowed a decisive 85-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.
Southern Miss entered the fourth quarter trailing by only four points but failed to score again after the fumble recovery touchdown. The offense went three-and-out on two key possessions, and the defense could not stop Troy's game-sealing drive, highlighting late-game execution problems.
The loss marked Southern Miss's third consecutive defeat to close the regular season, dropping them to 7-5 overall and 5-3 in Sun Belt play. This skid raises concerns about team morale and consistency heading into a potential bowl game, where they will need to address offensive and defensive vulnerabilities.
Troy travels 202 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Troy won by 10 in a double-digit victory.
Troy covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Under by 4.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Troy (-2.3) over Southern Miss (-3.2) by 0.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Southern Miss faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Southern Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Troy won and Troy covered the spread.
