26
Final
23
38
Final
61
13
Final
20
30
Final
24
34
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Final
34
34
Final
41
16
Final
35
19
Final
16
38
Final
35
14
Final
28
28
Final
31
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DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Troy defeated Southern Miss 28–18 in a double-digit victory. Troy covered by 17.0; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Southern Miss -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Southern Miss -1.6 - a gap of 5.4 points toward Troy, of which 4.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Southern Miss managed only 18 points despite 209 passing yards and a touchdown from Braylon Braxton. The offense stalled in the red zone, settling for field goals or failing to convert drives into touchdowns, which limited their ability to keep pace with Troy.
The defense allowed three touchdown passes from Goose Crowder, including a 75-yard strike to RaRa Thomas. These explosive plays undermined otherwise solid defensive efforts, as Troy capitalized on coverage breakdowns to extend drives and secure the win.
A fumble recovery by Kadinn Morris in the end zone late in the third quarter pulled Southern Miss within 14-10, providing a crucial momentum swing. However, the offense could not sustain drives afterward, and the defense allowed a decisive 85-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.
Southern Miss entered the fourth quarter trailing by only four points but failed to score again after the fumble recovery touchdown. The offense went three-and-out on two key possessions, and the defense could not stop Troy's game-sealing drive, highlighting late-game execution problems.
The loss marked Southern Miss's third consecutive defeat to close the regular season, dropping them to 7-5 overall and 5-3 in Sun Belt play. This skid raises concerns about team morale and consistency heading into a potential bowl game, where they will need to address offensive and defensive vulnerabilities.
At kickoff, conditions at M. M. Roberts Stadium were Cloudy, 56°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Cloudy
56°F

| Measure | TroyAway | Southern MissHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 202 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 161 miles |
| Season total | 5,947 miles | 2,484 miles |
| Body clock | 14:30 | 14:30 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |