14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 14 • November 30, 2025, 01:00 AM UTC
SMU @ California
8-3
ACC
Power Rank: 14.3
35 FINAL 38
6-5
ACC
Power Rank: -1.3
California covered by 16.5 | Game went Over by 10.5

By · Last updated

California defeated SMU 38–35 in a nail-biter. Blue Chip Analytics had rated SMU 15.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

SMU @ California Preview

General Information

Week: Week 14
Kick Off (at stadium): 05:00 PM PST
Stadium: California Memorial Stadium
Capacity: 52,428
Elevation: 427 ft
HFA Rating: 2.5
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread SMU -13.5
Total (O/U) 62.5
Expected Score SMU 38.0 - 24.5 CAL
Power Rank Implied Line SMU +15.6
Prediction Markets SMU 83% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Patchy rain nearby

Patchy rain nearby

53.8°F

Wind Chill: 53.2°F
Wind: 3.8 mph SW
Gusts: 6.3 mph
Precipitation: 0.08"
Humidity: 75%
Rain Chance: 62%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

SMU (Away)

This Week: 1474.6 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 11861.8 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 8

California (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 60.9 miles
Season Total: 15777.4 miles
Body Clock Time: 17:00
Rest Days: 8

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line SMU -13.5
Total Points 62.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
SMU 14.3
California -1.3
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 1475 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: California Memorial Stadium
Capacity 52,428
Elevation 427 ft
Weather: Patchy rain nearby
Temperature 53.8°F
Wind Speed 3.8 mph
Your Line California -15.6
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for SMU vs California?

SMU: Key Factors

California: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

SMU travels 1,475 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

SMU arrives with a 2-hour body clock disadvantage.

California won by 3 in a nail-biter.

California covered the spread, covering the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 10.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at California Memorial Stadium?

Precipitation chance is 62%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do SMU and California compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour SMU (14.3) over California (-1.3) by 15.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, California faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. California brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on SMU and California?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

California won and California covered the spread.