Week 14
California Memorial Stadium

SMU35 @FINAL 38California , Week 14, Nov 30, 2025

8-3 ACC Power rating: 14.3
6-5 ACC Power rating: -1.3

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SMU -13.5
PM Implied
SMU -9.9
Blue Chip model
SMU -12.1
Edge
+1.4CAL
See details
◂ favors SMUfavors CAL ▸Market: SMU -13.5
‹ 15.6 SMU
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1 SMU1 CAL2 SMU2 CAL3 SMU3 CALModel: SMU -12.1

Betting information

Spread
SMU -13.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
SMU 33.5 – 20.0 CAL
Prediction markets
SMU 83% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

California defeated SMU 38–35 in a nail-biter. California covered by 16.5; Game went Over by 19.5. The market closed at SMU -13.5 and the Blue Chip model made it SMU -12.1, an edge of 1.4 points toward California. Blue Chip Analytics had rated SMU 15.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for SMU vs California?

SMU

Missed opportunity for ACC title game

SMU lost 38-35 to Cal, squandering a chance to clinch a berth in the ACC championship game for the second straight year. The loss drops them to 8-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play, ending their title hopes.

Slow start and defensive struggles

The Mustangs fell behind 24-7 after allowing 21 unanswered points in the second quarter. Cal scored 38 points, the second-most allowed by SMU this season, and gained 452 yards, the third-most by an opponent, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Offensive resilience but late-game failure

SMU rallied to take a 35-31 lead with 2:22 remaining, but the defense couldn't hold, allowing a 75-yard touchdown drive. A missed 52-yard field goal with 8 seconds left sealed the loss, showing an inability to finish.

Key players' performances

Quarterback Kevin Jennings threw for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Running back Chris Johnson Jr. rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries, providing a strong ground game that wasn't enough to overcome the deficit.

Bowl game outlook

SMU will await a bowl invitation after the loss. The team must address slow starts and defensive lapses to be competitive in their postseason matchup, as they've shown inconsistency on the road in conference play.

California

Resilient Offense Under New Coach

Cal scored 38 points against a strong SMU defense, with QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele throwing for 330 yards and 4 TDs. The offense showed poise in a game-winning drive, suggesting they can perform under pressure in bowl preparation.

Key Defensive Plays by Freshman

Freshman safety Aiden Manutai made a crucial interception and a pass breakup on SMU's final drive, highlighting a defense that can create turnovers and make stops in critical moments.

Running Game Effectiveness

Kendrick Raphael rushed 33 times for 111 yards and the game-winning TD, providing a reliable ground attack that can control the clock and complement the passing game.

Emotional Boost from Coaching Change

Playing under interim coach Nick Rolovich after Justin Wilcox's firing, the team stayed united and won for the seniors, indicating strong morale and adaptability that could carry into a bowl game.

What were the weather conditions for SMU vs California?

At kickoff, conditions at California Memorial Stadium were Clear, 51°F with winds of 1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

SMU travels 1,475 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

California won by 3 in a nail-biter.

California covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 19.5 points.

How do SMU and California compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor SMU (14.3) over California (-1.3) by 15.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, California faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. California brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

California won and California covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 30, 2025 Game-time

Clear

51°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity88%
Wind1 mph S
Gusts2 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for SMU at California: aerial view of California Memorial Stadium, wind from the S at 0.9 mph, gusting to 1.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
05:00 PM PST
Venue
California Memorial Stadium
Capacity
52,428
Elevation
427 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure SMUAway CaliforniaHome
This week1,475 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game61 miles
Season total8,913 miles15,777 miles
Body clock19:0017:00
Rest8 days7 days