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Week 14 •
Maverik Stadium

Boise State25 @FINAL 24Utah State

7-4 MW Power rating: 10.7
6-5 MW Power rating: -2.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BOIS -1.5
PM Implied
BOIS -0.9
Blue Chip model
BOIS -9.8
Edge
-8.3BOIS
See details
◂ favors BOISfavors USU ▸Market: BOIS -1.5
‹ 13.6 BOIS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USU
no impact
no impact
USU
USU
5 BOIS5 USUModel: BOIS -9.8

Betting information

Spread
BOIS -1.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
BOIS 28.0 – 26.5 USU
Prediction markets
BOIS 54% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Boise State defeated Utah State 25–24 in a nail-biter. Utah State covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 5.5. The market closed at Boise State -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Boise State -9.8 - a gap of 8.3 points toward Boise State, of which 6.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Boise State vs Utah State?

At kickoff, conditions at Maverik Stadium were Overcast, 28°F, wind chill 18°F with winds of 6 mph. At 28°F this is a freezing game. Cold is a scoring-environment factor rather than a side factor: Blue Chip has not measured a reliable spread effect from temperature. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Boise State travels 257 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Boise State won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Utah State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

How do Boise State and Utah State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Boise State (10.7) over Utah State (-2.9) by 13.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Utah State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Utah State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Boise State and Utah State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Boise State won and Utah State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 28, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

28°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity86%
Wind6 mph NNW
Gusts12 mph
Wind chill18°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Boise State at Utah State: aerial view of Maverik Stadium, wind from the NNW at 5.8 mph, gusting to 12.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM MST
Venue
Maverik Stadium
Capacity
25,513
Elevation
4,721 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Boise StateAway Utah StateHome
This week257 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,090 miles
Season total11,127 miles14,154 miles
Body clock14:0014:00
Rest5 days5 days

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