Week 14
McLane Stadium

Houston31 @FINAL 24Baylor , Week 14, Nov 29, 2025

8-3 Big 12 Power rating: 9.8
5-6 Big 12 Power rating: 14.1

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BAY -2.5
PM Implied
BAY -1.3
Blue Chip model
BAY -6.2
Edge
+3.7BAY
See details
◂ favors HOUfavors BAY ▸Market: BAY -2.5
BAY
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2 HOU2 BAY4 HOU4 BAYModel: BAY -6.2

Betting information

Spread
BAY -2.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
HOU 27.0 – 29.5 BAY
Prediction markets
BAY 56% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Houston defeated Baylor 31–24 in a one-score game. Houston covered by 9.5; Game went Under by 1.5. The market closed at Baylor -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Baylor -6.2 - a gap of 3.7 points toward Baylor, of which 3.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Baylor 4.3 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Houston vs Baylor?

Houston

Conner Weigman's Dual-Threat Performance

Weigman accounted for three touchdowns (two rushing, one passing) with 201 passing yards and 121 rushing yards, showcasing his ability to lead the offense both through the air and on the ground.

Perfect Road Record

Houston finished 6-0 on the road, only the third time in school history, demonstrating exceptional resilience and performance away from home.

Game-Winning Drive and Defensive Stand

After Baylor tied the game, Houston executed a decisive 1-yard touchdown run by Dean Connors with 1:57 left, followed by a defensive stop on fourth down to secure the win.

Nine-Win Regular Season Milestone

The Cougars achieved their first nine-win regular season since 2021 and only their second since 2016, marking significant improvement under coach Willie Fritz.

Bowl Game Berth

Houston secured a bowl game for the first time in three seasons, with their opponent and location to be determined on December 7, providing motivation for continued success.

What were the weather conditions for Houston vs Baylor?

At kickoff, conditions at McLane Stadium were Partly cloudy, 74°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Houston travels 165 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Houston won by 7 in a one-score game.

Houston covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 1.5 points.

How do Houston and Baylor compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Baylor (14.1) over Houston (9.8) by 4.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Baylor brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Houston won and Houston covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

74°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity72%
Wind9 mph SW
Gusts15 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Houston at Baylor: aerial view of McLane Stadium, wind from the SW at 8.5 mph, gusting to 14.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CST
Venue
McLane Stadium
Capacity
45,140
Elevation
404 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure HoustonAway BaylorHome
This week165 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,628 miles
Season total8,485 miles4,362 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days