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Week 14 •
Carter-Finley Stadium

North Carolina19 @FINAL 42NC State

4-7 ACC Power rating: 2.5
6-5 ACC Power rating: 6.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NCSU -7.0
PM Implied
NCSU -6.2
Blue Chip model
NCSU -7.1
Edge
+0.1NCSU
See details
◂ favors UNCfavors NCSU ▸Market: NCSU -7.0
4.0 › NCSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NCSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
UNC
1 UNC1 NCSU2 UNC2 NCSU3 UNC3 NCSUModel: NCSU -7.1

Betting information

Spread
NCSU -7.0
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
UNC 20.8 – 27.8 NCSU
Prediction markets
NCSU 73% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

NC State defeated North Carolina 42–19 to secure a comfortable win. NC State covered by 16.0; Game went Over by 12.5. The market closed at NC State -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it NC State -7.1. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for North Carolina vs NC State?

At kickoff, conditions at Carter-Finley Stadium were Partly cloudy, 35°F, wind chill 32°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

North Carolina travels 20 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

NC State won by 23 to secure a comfortable win.

NC State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 12.5 points.

How do North Carolina and NC State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor NC State (6.5) over North Carolina (2.5) by 4.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. NC State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on North Carolina and NC State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

NC State won and NC State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 30, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

35°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity54%
Wind5 mph SSE
Gusts10 mph
Wind chill32°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for North Carolina at NC State: aerial view of Carter-Finley Stadium, wind from the SSE at 5.4 mph, gusting to 10.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EST
Venue
Carter-Finley Stadium
Capacity
56,919
Elevation
410 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

North CarolinaAway NC StateHome
This week20 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total7,185 miles3,387 miles
Body clock19:3019:30
Rest8 days8 days

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