Week 14
Neyland Stadium

Vanderbilt45 @FINAL 24Tennessee , Week 14, Nov 29, 2025

9-2 SEC Power rating: 17.5
8-3 SEC Power rating: 20.1

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TENN -2.5
PM Implied
TENN -1.8
Blue Chip model
TENN -5.5
Edge
+3.0TENN
See details
◂ favors VANfavors TENN ▸Market: TENN -2.5
TENN
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TENN
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1 VAN1 TENN2 VAN2 TENN3 VAN3 TENNModel: TENN -5.5

Betting information

Spread
TENN -2.5
Total
66.5
Odds implied score
VAN 32.0 – 34.5 TENN
Prediction markets
TENN 58% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Vanderbilt defeated Tennessee 45–24 to secure a comfortable win. Vanderbilt covered by 23.5; Game went Over by 2.5. The market closed at Tennessee -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Tennessee -5.5, an edge of 3.0 points toward Tennessee.

What are the key factors for Vanderbilt vs Tennessee?

Vanderbilt

Historic 10-win season and CFP hopes

Vanderbilt secured its first 10-win season in program history with a dominant 45-24 win over No. 18 Tennessee, keeping its College Football Playoff hopes alive. The Commodores' strong performance, especially against a ranked rival, puts pressure on the CFP committee to consider them for a spot.

Diego Pavia's dual-threat dominance

Quarterback Diego Pavia was the catalyst, throwing for 268 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 165 yards and another score. His confidence and playmaking ability were key to Vanderbilt's 582 total yards, making him a critical factor in any postseason matchup.

Strong rushing attack and third-quarter control

Sedrick Alexander added 115 rushing yards and three touchdowns, and the Commodores dominated the third quarter, holding the ball for the first 6:35 and scoring two touchdowns to break a 21-21 halftime tie. This ability to control the game on the ground and in time of possession will be vital in their next game.

Coach Clark Lea's extension and team stability

Amid interest from Florida, Vanderbilt signed coach Clark Lea to a six-year extension, providing stability and motivation. The team's response to this news was a focused, record-setting performance, indicating strong leadership and unity heading into the postseason.

Tennessee

Defensive Collapse in Second Half

Tennessee's defense allowed 24 points in the second half, including a 5-yard touchdown run and a 24-yard rushing score by Diego Pavia, leading to a 45-24 loss. Coach Heupel called the performance 'not anywhere near the standard for Tennessee football.'

Missed Opportunity for 10-Win Season

The loss to Vanderbilt ended Tennessee's chance at a 10-win regular season, finishing 8-4. This is a deflating result, especially at home against an in-state rival.

Joey Aguilar's Strong Individual Performance

Quarterback Joey Aguilar threw for 299 yards and a touchdown, extending his streak of 200+ passing yards to 12 games. He surpassed Peyton Manning for fourth on Tennessee's all-time single-season passing list.

Running Game Shows Promise

DeSean Bishop rushed for 97 yards and two touchdowns, providing a bright spot in the offense. However, the team's overall rushing attack was overshadowed by Vanderbilt's 582 total yards.

Postseason Outlook Uncertain

Tennessee will play its next game in the postseason, but the loss to Vanderbilt likely drops them in bowl projections and dampens momentum heading into the offseason.

What were the weather conditions for Vanderbilt vs Tennessee?

At kickoff, conditions at Neyland Stadium were Overcast, 40°F, wind chill 35°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Vanderbilt travels 162 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Vanderbilt arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Vanderbilt won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

Vanderbilt covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 2.5 points.

How do Vanderbilt and Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Tennessee (20.1) over Vanderbilt (17.5) by 2.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Vanderbilt won and Vanderbilt covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

40°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity57%
Wind4 mph S
Gusts7 mph
Wind chill35°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Vanderbilt at Tennessee: aerial view of Neyland Stadium, wind from the S at 3.8 mph, gusting to 6.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EST
Venue
Neyland Stadium
Capacity
101,915
Elevation
899 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure VanderbiltAway TennesseeHome
This week162 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game888 miles
Season total3,521 miles2,701 miles
Body clock14:3015:30
Rest7 days6 days