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Week 14 •
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Navy28 @FINAL 17Memphis

8-2 American Power rating: 3.3
8-3 American Power rating: 10.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MEM -4.0
PM Implied
MEM -2.9
Blue Chip model
MEM -10.2
Edge
+6.2MEM
See details
◂ favors NAVYfavors MEM ▸Market: MEM -4.0
7.6 › MEM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MEM
no impact
MEM
no impact
no impact
2 NAVY2 MEM4 NAVY4 MEM6 NAVY6 MEMModel: MEM -10.2

Betting information

Spread
MEM -4.0
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
NAVY 26.8 – 30.8 MEM
Prediction markets
MEM 62% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Navy defeated Memphis 28–17 in a double-digit victory. Navy covered by 15.0; Game went Under by 12.5. The market closed at Memphis -4.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Memphis -10.2 - a gap of 6.2 points toward Memphis, of which 5.1 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Memphis 7.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Navy vs Memphis?

Memphis

Offensive Struggles in Second Half

Memphis managed only 3 points in the second half after leading 17-14 at halftime, failing to sustain drives and allowing Navy to take control.

Quarterback Performance

Brendon Lewis completed 19 of 36 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns, but the passing game lacked consistency and big plays after the first half.

Defensive Lapses Against the Run

Navy's option attack gained 103 yards from Alex Tecza and 54 from Blake Horvath, exposing Memphis's run defense and allowing two second-half rushing touchdowns.

Missed Opportunities in Close Game

Memphis held a 17-14 lead at halftime but could not capitalize on key drives, turning the ball over or punting in critical moments.

Playoff Implications Diminished

The loss drops Memphis to 6-4 overall and 4-4 in AAC play, likely eliminating them from conference title contention and hurting their bowl positioning.

What were the weather conditions for Navy vs Memphis?

At kickoff, conditions at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium were Clear, 41°F, wind chill 37°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Navy travels 790 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Navy arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Navy won by 11 in a double-digit victory.

Navy covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 12.5 points.

How do Navy and Memphis compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Memphis (10.9) over Navy (3.3) by 7.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Memphis brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Navy and Memphis?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Navy won and Navy covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 28, 2025 Game-time

Clear

41°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity72%
Wind6 mph N
Gusts10 mph
Wind chill37°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Navy at Memphis: aerial view of Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, wind from the N at 5.6 mph, gusting to 10.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CST
Venue
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Capacity
50,000
Elevation
315 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

NavyAway MemphisHome
This week790 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total6,677 miles5,827 miles
Body clock19:3018:30
Rest13 days13 days

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