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Week 14 •
Davis Wade Stadium

Ole Miss38 @FINAL 19Mississippi State

10-1 SEC Power rating: 25.2
5-6 SEC Power rating: 12.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MISS -7.5
PM Implied
MISS -6.3
Blue Chip model
MISS -11.6
Edge
-4.1MISS
See details
◂ favors MISSfavors MSST ▸Market: MISS -7.5
‹ 12.9 MISS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MSST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 MISS2 MSST4 MISS4 MSSTModel: MISS -11.6

Betting information

Spread
MISS -7.5
Total
62.5
Odds implied score
MISS 35.0 – 27.5 MSST
Prediction markets
MISS 74% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ole Miss defeated Mississippi State 38–19 to secure a comfortable win. Ole Miss covered by 11.5; Game went Under by 5.5. The market closed at Ole Miss -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ole Miss -11.6 - a gap of 4.1 points toward Ole Miss, of which 3.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Ole Miss vs Mississippi State?

At kickoff, conditions at Davis Wade Stadium were Cloudy, 47°F, wind chill 46°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Ole Miss travels 76 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Ole Miss won by 19 to secure a comfortable win.

Ole Miss covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

How do Ole Miss and Mississippi State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ole Miss (25.2) over Mississippi State (12.3) by 12.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Mississippi State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Mississippi State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Ole Miss and Mississippi State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Ole Miss won and Ole Miss covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 28, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

47°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity37%
Wind5 mph N
Gusts7 mph
Wind chill46°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Ole Miss at Mississippi State: aerial view of Davis Wade Stadium, wind from the N at 4.5 mph, gusting to 6.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CST
Venue
Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity
60,311
Elevation
381 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Ole MissAway Mississippi StateHome
This week76 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total2,446 miles3,755 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest12 days12 days

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