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Week 14 •
DATCU Stadium

Temple25 @FINAL 52North Texas

5-6 American Power rating: -5.6
10-1 American Power rating: 7.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UNT -20.5
PM Implied
UNT -15.1
Blue Chip model
UNT -16.0
Edge
-4.5TEM
See details
◂ favors TEMfavors UNT ▸Market: UNT -20.5
13.1 › UNT
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UNT
no impact
UNT
no impact
TEM
2 TEM2 UNT4 TEM4 UNTModel: UNT -16.0

Betting information

Spread
UNT -20.5
Total
65.5
Odds implied score
TEM 22.5 – 43.0 UNT
Prediction markets
UNT 92% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

North Texas defeated Temple 52–25 to secure a comfortable win. North Texas covered by 6.5; Game went Over by 11.5. The market closed at North Texas -20.5 and the Blue Chip model made it North Texas -16.0 - a gap of 4.5 points toward Temple, of which 3.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Temple vs North Texas?

North Texas

Clinched Conference Title Game Berth

North Texas secured a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game with the win, overcoming distractions from coach Eric Morris's departure announcement.

Offensive Dominance Continues

The nation's No. 1 offense amassed 366 yards in the first half alone, with Drew Mestemaker throwing for 366 yards and 3 TDs, and Caleb Hawkins rushing for 186 yards and 4 TDs.

Mestemaker's Record-Breaking Season

Mestemaker broke Dillon Gabriel's AAC freshman passing record, now at 3,835 yards, with 29 TD passes and only 4 interceptions, completing 20 of 24 passes in this game.

Next Opponent Uncertainty

North Texas will face either Tulane or Navy in the conference title game; they did not play Tulane this season but beat Navy 31-17 earlier.

Potential CFP Implications

A win in the championship game could earn North Texas a College Football Playoff berth as the Group of Five representative, adding high stakes to their next matchup.

What were the weather conditions for Temple vs North Texas?

At kickoff, conditions at DATCU Stadium were Overcast, 51°F with winds of 13 mph. Gusts reaching 21 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Temple travels 1,303 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Temple arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

North Texas won by 27 to secure a comfortable win.

North Texas covered the spread.

The total went Over by 11.5 points.

How do Temple and North Texas compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor North Texas (7.5) over Temple (-5.6) by 13.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. North Texas brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Temple and North Texas?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

North Texas won and North Texas covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 28, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

51°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity54%
Wind13 mph SSE
Gusts21 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Temple at North Texas: aerial view of DATCU Stadium, wind from the SSE at 13.4 mph, gusting to 20.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CST
Venue
DATCU Stadium
Capacity
30,100
Elevation
676 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

TempleAway North TexasHome
This week1,303 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game523 miles
Season total6,508 miles8,180 miles
Body clock15:3014:30
Rest6 days5 days

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