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Week 14 •
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Florida State21 @FINAL 40Florida

5-6 ACC Power rating: 16.4
3-8 SEC Power rating: 16.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
FSU -1.5
PM Implied
FLA -0.1
Blue Chip model
FLA -3.5
Edge
+5.0FLA
See details
◂ favors FSUfavors FLA ▸Market: FSU -1.5
FSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
FLA
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 FSU2 FLA4 FSU4 FLAModel: FLA -3.5

Betting information

Spread
FSU -1.5
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
FSU 25.5 – 24.0 FLA
Prediction markets
FLA 51% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Florida defeated Florida State 40–21 to secure a comfortable win. Florida covered by 20.5; Game went Over by 11.5. The market closed at Florida State -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Florida -3.5 - a gap of 5.0 points toward Florida, of which 4.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Florida State vs Florida?

At kickoff, conditions at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium were Partly cloudy, 62°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Florida State travels 129 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Florida won by 19 to secure a comfortable win.

Florida covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 11.5 points.

How do Florida State and Florida compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Florida State (16.4) and Florida (16.3) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. Florida brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Florida State and Florida?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Florida won and Florida covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

62°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity73%
Wind7 mph ENE
Gusts10 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Florida State at Florida: aerial view of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, wind from the ENE at 6.5 mph, gusting to 9.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
04:30 PM EST
Venue
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Capacity
88,548
Elevation
98 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Florida StateAway FloridaHome
This week129 miles0 miles
Last week983 milesHome game
Season total7,383 miles5,685 miles
Body clock16:3016:30
Rest7 days6 days

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