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Week 14 •
Yager Stadium

Ball State24 @FINAL 45Miami (OH)

4-7 MAC Power rating: -17.2
6-5 MAC Power rating: -2.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
M-OH -16.5
PM Implied
M-OH -12.6
Blue Chip model
M-OH -17.2
Edge
+0.7M-OH
See details
◂ favors BALLfavors M-OH ▸Market: M-OH -16.5
14.9 › M-OH
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
M-OH
M-OH
no impact
no impact
BALL
1 BALL1 M-OH2 BALL2 M-OHModel: M-OH -17.2

Betting information

Spread
M-OH -16.5
Total
40.5
Odds implied score
BALL 12.0 – 28.5 M-OH
Prediction markets
M-OH 90% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Miami (OH) defeated Ball State 45–24 to secure a comfortable win. Miami (OH) covered by 4.5; Game went Over by 28.5. The market closed at Miami (OH) -16.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami (OH) -17.2. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for Ball State vs Miami (OH)?

At kickoff, conditions at Yager Stadium were Moderate snow, 28°F, wind chill 17°F with winds of 11 mph. At 28°F this is a freezing game. Cold is a scoring-environment factor rather than a side factor: Blue Chip has not measured a reliable spread effect from temperature. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Ball State travels 60 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Miami (OH) won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

Miami (OH) covered the spread.

The total went Over by 28.5 points.

How do Ball State and Miami (OH) compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Miami (OH) (-2.3) over Ball State (-17.2) by 14.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Miami (OH) brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Ball State and Miami (OH)?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Miami (OH) won and Miami (OH) covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Moderate snow

28°F

Rain0%
Precip0.05"
Humidity90%
Wind11 mph SE
Gusts17 mph
Wind chill17°F
Snow chance100%
Wind map for Ball State at Miami (OH): aerial view of Yager Stadium, wind from the SE at 11.4 mph, gusting to 17 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EST
Venue
Yager Stadium
Capacity
30,087
Elevation
797 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Ball StateAway Miami (OH)Home
This week60 miles0 miles
Last week274 miles784 miles
Season total3,610 miles3,797 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest7 days9 days

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