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Week 14 •
Aggie Memorial Stadium

Middle Tennessee31 @FINAL 24New Mexico State

2-9 CUSA Power rating: -15.3
4-7 CUSA Power rating: -15.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NMSU -3.0
PM Implied
NMSU -3.2
Blue Chip model
NMSU -3.1
Edge
+0.1NMSU
See details
◂ favors MTSUfavors NMSU ▸Market: NMSU -3.0
NMSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NMSU
no impact
NMSU
NMSU
no impact
1 MTSU1 NMSU2 MTSU2 NMSUModel: NMSU -3.1

Betting information

Spread
NMSU -3.0
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
MTSU 24.8 – 27.8 NMSU
Prediction markets
NMSU 62% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Middle Tennessee defeated New Mexico State 31–24 in a one-score game. Middle Tennessee covered by 10.0; Game went Over by 2.5. The market closed at New Mexico State -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it New Mexico State -3.1. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State?

At kickoff, conditions at Aggie Memorial Stadium were Partly cloudy, 57°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Middle Tennessee travels 1,192 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Middle Tennessee arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Middle Tennessee won by 7 in a one-score game.

Middle Tennessee covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 2.5 points.

How do Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Middle Tennessee (-15.3) and New Mexico State (-15.2) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. New Mexico State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Middle Tennessee and New Mexico State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Middle Tennessee won and Middle Tennessee covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

57°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity38%
Wind5 mph SSE
Gusts11 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State: aerial view of Aggie Memorial Stadium, wind from the SSE at 5.1 mph, gusting to 10.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM MST
Venue
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Capacity
28,853
Elevation
3,970 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Middle TennesseeAway New Mexico StateHome
This week1,192 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game75 miles
Season total7,675 miles10,358 miles
Body clock14:0013:00
Rest7 days7 days

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