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Week 14 •
Razorback Stadium

Missouri31 @FINAL 17Arkansas

7-4 SEC Power rating: 19.1
2-9 SEC Power rating: 12.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MIZ -4.5
PM Implied
MIZ -3.6
Blue Chip model
MIZ -5.4
Edge
-0.9MIZ
See details
◂ favors MIZfavors ARK ▸Market: MIZ -4.5
‹ 6.7 MIZ
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARK
no impact
no impact
no impact
ARK
1 MIZ1 ARK2 MIZ2 ARKModel: MIZ -5.4

Betting information

Spread
MIZ -4.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
MIZ 29.5 – 25.0 ARK
Prediction markets
MIZ 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Missouri defeated Arkansas 31–17 in a double-digit victory. Missouri covered by 9.5; Game went Under by 6.5. The market closed at Missouri -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Missouri -5.4. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Missouri vs Arkansas?

Missouri

Dominant rushing attack

Missouri ran for 322 yards, their second-highest total of the season and most in an SEC game, with Ahmad Hardy (149 yards, TD) and Jamal Roberts (100 yards, TD) leading the way.

Defensive resilience

The Tigers held Arkansas to 246 total yards, well below their season average of 474, and forced a key fumble return for a touchdown by Bradley Shaw.

Special teams impact

Kevin Coleman Jr. returned a punt 67 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, providing a two-score cushion and highlighting Missouri's special teams prowess.

Quarterback efficiency

Beau Pribula threw for only 25 yards but contributed 78 rushing yards and a touchdown, showing the team's ability to win with a run-heavy game plan.

Program stability

Coach Eli Drinkwitz signed an extension earlier in the week and has led Missouri to three straight winning seasons for the first time since 2009-11, solidifying the team's second-tier SEC status.

What were the weather conditions for Missouri vs Arkansas?

At kickoff, conditions at Razorback Stadium were Overcast, 35°F, wind chill 25°F with winds of 16 mph. Wind of 16 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 23 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. At 35°F, cold is worth noting but is unlikely to be decisive. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Missouri travels 222 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Missouri won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

Missouri covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 6.5 points.

How do Missouri and Arkansas compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Missouri (19.1) over Arkansas (12.4) by 6.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 0.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Missouri and Arkansas?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Missouri won and Missouri covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

35°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity85%
Wind16 mph NW
Gusts23 mph
Wind chill25°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Missouri at Arkansas: aerial view of Razorback Stadium, wind from the NW at 15.9 mph, gusting to 22.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CST
Venue
Razorback Stadium
Capacity
76,212
Elevation
1,358 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

MissouriAway ArkansasHome
This week222 miles0 miles
Last week764 miles897 miles
Season total2,867 miles3,965 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days

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