Week 14
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Kentucky0 @FINAL 41Louisville , Week 14, Nov 29, 2025

5-6 SEC Power rating: 7.5
7-4 ACC Power rating: 18.4

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UK -1.5
PM Implied
LOU -0.8
Blue Chip model
LOU -13.9
Edge
+15.4LOU
See details
◂ favors UKfavors LOU ▸Market: UK -1.5
LOU
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LOU
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UK
5 UK5 LOU10 UK10 LOU15 UK15 LOUModel: LOU -13.9

Betting information

Spread
UK -1.5
Total
45.5
Odds implied score
UK 23.5 – 22.0 LOU
Prediction markets
LOU 54% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Louisville defeated Kentucky 41–0 in a dominant performance. Louisville covered by 42.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Kentucky -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Louisville -13.9 - a gap of 15.4 points toward Louisville, of which 14.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Kentucky vs Louisville?

Louisville

Dominant Rushing Attack from Freshmen

Despite missing top three running backs, true freshman walk-on Braxton Jennings (113 yards) and redshirt freshman Shaun Boykins Jr. (101 yards, TD) each rushed for over 100 yards, leading a 258-yard ground game that was Louisville's second-best of the season.

Miller Moss Returns and Shines

Quarterback Miller Moss, returning from a foot injury, completed 12 of 20 passes for 182 yards and accounted for four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing), providing a steady hand for the offense.

Defensive and Special Teams Dominance

Louisville's defense held Kentucky to a season-low 147 yards, forced two turnovers, and allowed only 2-of-14 third-down conversions. A blocked punt in the first quarter set up the opening score, showcasing a complete team effort.

Rivalry Shutout and Historic Win

The 41-0 victory was Louisville's largest margin of win in the series since 1994 and their first shutout of Kentucky in 21 years, snapping a three-game losing streak and providing a major morale boost.

Bowl Game Ahead with Momentum

Louisville improved to 8-4 and will play in a bowl game (destination announced Dec. 7). The blowout win gives the Cardinals a chance to win at least nine games for the third straight season, building confidence despite key injuries.

What were the weather conditions for Kentucky vs Louisville?

At kickoff, conditions at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium were Overcast, 34°F, wind chill 25°F with winds of 9 mph. At 34°F, cold is worth noting but is unlikely to be decisive. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Kentucky travels 69 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Louisville won by 41 in a dominant performance.

Louisville covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do Kentucky and Louisville compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Louisville (18.4) over Kentucky (7.5) by 10.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Louisville brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Louisville won and Louisville covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

34°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity70%
Wind9 mph SSE
Gusts12 mph
Wind chill25°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Kentucky at Louisville: aerial view of L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, wind from the SSE at 8.5 mph, gusting to 12.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EST
Venue
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Capacity
60,800
Elevation
466 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure KentuckyAway LouisvilleHome
This week69 miles0 miles
Last week363 miles1,445 miles
Season total2,445 miles4,541 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days