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Week 14 •
Wallace Wade Stadium

Wake Forest32 @FINAL 49Duke

8-3 ACC Power rating: 2.9
6-5 ACC Power rating: 11.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
DUKE -2.5
PM Implied
DUKE -0.9
Blue Chip model
DUKE -11.1
Edge
+8.6DUKE
See details
◂ favors WAKEfavors DUKE ▸Market: DUKE -2.5
DUKE
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
DUKE
no impact
no impact
no impact
WAKE
5 WAKE5 DUKE10 WAKE10 DUKEModel: DUKE -11.1

Betting information

Spread
DUKE -2.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
WAKE 25.5 – 28.0 DUKE
Prediction markets
DUKE 54% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Duke defeated Wake Forest 49–32 to secure a comfortable win. Duke covered by 14.5; Game went Over by 27.5. The market closed at Duke -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Duke -11.1 - a gap of 8.6 points toward Duke, of which 7.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Wake Forest vs Duke?

Wake Forest

Turnover and Penalty Issues

Wake Forest committed four turnovers and 97 yards in penalties, which directly contributed to their loss. This lack of discipline and ball security will need to be addressed to avoid similar outcomes in future games.

Defensive Struggles Against High-Scoring Offenses

The Demon Deacons allowed a season-high 49 points, continuing a trend of giving up at least 30 points in all four losses. Their defense will need to improve significantly to compete in their bowl game.

Offensive Bright Spots Despite Loss

Robby Ashford threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns, and added a rushing touchdown and two-point conversion. The offense showed ability to move the ball, but turnovers and penalties undermined their efforts.

Momentum Shift After Three-Game Win Streak

The loss ended a three-game winning streak that included victories over SMU and Virginia. The team must regroup and find consistency to finish the season strong in their bowl matchup.

What were the weather conditions for Wake Forest vs Duke?

At kickoff, conditions at Wallace Wade Stadium were Clear, 37°F, wind chill 34°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Wake Forest travels 74 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Duke won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

Duke covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 27.5 points.

How do Wake Forest and Duke compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Duke (11.4) over Wake Forest (2.9) by 8.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Duke brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Wake Forest and Duke?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Duke won and Duke covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Clear

37°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity47%
Wind5 mph SE
Gusts9 mph
Wind chill34°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Wake Forest at Duke: aerial view of Wallace Wade Stadium, wind from the SE at 4.5 mph, gusting to 9.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EST
Venue
Wallace Wade Stadium
Capacity
40,004
Elevation
384 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Wake ForestAway DukeHome
This week74 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game17 miles
Season total6,097 miles8,857 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest7 days7 days

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