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Week 14 •
Kidd Brewer Stadium

Arkansas State30 @FINAL 29App State

5-6 Sun Belt Power rating: -7.1
5-6 Sun Belt Power rating: -8.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARST -1.5
PM Implied
ARST -0.1
Blue Chip model
APP -3.0
Edge
+4.5APP
See details
◂ favors ARSTfavors APP ▸Market: ARST -1.5
ARST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
APP
no impact
no impact
APP
APP
2 ARST2 APP4 ARST4 APPModel: APP -3.0

Betting information

Spread
ARST -1.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
ARST 28.0 – 26.5 APP
Prediction markets
ARST 51% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arkansas State defeated App State 30–29 in a nail-biter. App State covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 4.5. The market closed at Arkansas State -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it App State -3.0 - a gap of 4.5 points toward App State, of which 2.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas State vs App State?

At kickoff, conditions at Kidd Brewer Stadium were Overcast, 27°F, wind chill 18°F with winds of 5 mph. At 27°F this is a freezing game. Cold is a scoring-environment factor rather than a side factor: Blue Chip has not measured a reliable spread effect from temperature. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arkansas State travels 503 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Arkansas State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Arkansas State won by 1 in a nail-biter.

App State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

How do Arkansas State and App State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arkansas State (-7.1) over App State (-8.0) by 0.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, App State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. App State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas State and App State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arkansas State won and App State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 29, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

27°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity52%
Wind5 mph SSE
Gusts10 mph
Wind chill18°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Arkansas State at App State: aerial view of Kidd Brewer Stadium, wind from the SSE at 4.9 mph, gusting to 10.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM EST
Venue
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
3,301 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Arkansas StateAway App StateHome
This week503 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total3,510 miles6,549 miles
Body clock13:3014:30
Rest8 days7 days

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