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Week 14 •
Canvas Stadium

Air Force42 @FINAL 21Colorado State

3-8 MW Power rating: -6.1
2-9 MW Power rating: -7.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
AF -2.5
PM Implied
AF -1.7
Blue Chip model
CSU -1.0
Edge
+3.5CSU
See details
◂ favors AFfavors CSU ▸Market: AF -2.5
AF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
CSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 AF2 CSU4 AF4 CSUModel: CSU -1.0

Betting information

Spread
AF -2.5
Total
47.5
Odds implied score
AF 25.0 – 22.5 CSU
Prediction markets
AF 57% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Air Force defeated Colorado State 42–21 to secure a comfortable win. Air Force covered by 18.5; Game went Over by 15.5. The market closed at Air Force -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Colorado State -1.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Colorado State, of which 2.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Air Force vs Colorado State?

At kickoff, conditions at Canvas Stadium were Clear, 42°F, wind chill 37°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Air Force travels 109 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Air Force won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

Air Force covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 15.5 points.

How do Air Force and Colorado State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Air Force (-6.1) over Colorado State (-7.1) by 1.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Colorado State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Colorado State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Air Force and Colorado State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Air Force won and Air Force covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 28, 2025 Game-time

Clear

42°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity42%
Wind6 mph NW
Gusts13 mph
Wind chill37°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Air Force at Colorado State: aerial view of Canvas Stadium, wind from the NW at 6 mph, gusting to 12.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 14
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM MST
Venue
Canvas Stadium
Capacity
41,000
Elevation
5,010 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Air ForceAway Colorado StateHome
This week109 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,215 miles
Season total10,447 miles5,784 miles
Body clock13:0013:00
Rest5 days5 days

Other games this week