Week 11
Beaver Stadium

Indiana27 @FINAL 24Penn State , Week 11, Nov 8, 2025

9-0 Big Ten Power rating: 32.1
3-5 Big Ten Power rating: 16.9

How did the line hold up?

Market line
IU -14.5
PM Implied
IU -10.9
Blue Chip model
IU -13.1
Edge
+1.4PSU
See details
◂ favors IUfavors PSU ▸Market: IU -14.5
‹ 15.2 IU
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1 IU1 PSU2 IU2 PSUModel: IU -13.1

Betting information

Spread
IU -14.5
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
IU 32.0 – 17.5 PSU
Prediction markets
IU 86% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Indiana defeated Penn State 27–24 in a nail-biter. Penn State covered by 11.5; Game went Over by 1.5. The market closed at Indiana -14.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Indiana -13.1, an edge of 1.4 points toward Penn State.

What are the key factors for Indiana vs Penn State?

Penn State

Sixth Straight Loss Under Interim Coach

Penn State lost 27-24 to No. 2 Indiana, extending their losing streak to six games. The team is playing under interim coach Terry Smith after the head coach was fired, and they have lost starting quarterback and defensive captain to season-ending injuries.

Offensive Struggles Until Fourth Quarter

The Nittany Lions' offense, coordinated by Andy Kotelnicki, was stagnant for most of the game, trailing 17-7 at halftime. They only found rhythm in the fourth quarter, scoring 17 points, including a go-ahead touchdown pass from Ethan Grunkemeyer to Nicholas Singleton with 6:27 left.

Defensive Lapses in Critical Moments

Despite forcing a punt with 1:51 remaining, the defense allowed Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza to lead a game-winning drive, including a 29-yard completion and the final 17-yard touchdown pass to Omar Cooper Jr. with 36 seconds left.

Bowl Eligibility at Risk

After starting the season ranked No. 2, Penn State is now 3-6 and must win their remaining three games (including next at Michigan State) to become bowl eligible. The team's morale is low, as noted by interim coach Smith calling the situation 'very humbling.'

Kaytron Allen Sets Career Carries Record

Running back Kaytron Allen passed Evan Royster for most career carries in Penn State history, now with 697 carries for 3,613 yards. This milestone highlights individual achievement amid team struggles.

What were the weather conditions for Indiana vs Penn State?

At kickoff, conditions at Beaver Stadium were Cloudy, 51°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Indiana travels 473 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Indiana won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Penn State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 1.5 points.

How do Indiana and Penn State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Indiana (32.1) over Penn State (16.9) by 15.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Penn State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Penn State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Indiana won and Penn State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 8, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

51°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity78%
Wind3 mph W
Gusts5 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Indiana at Penn State: aerial view of Beaver Stadium, wind from the W at 2.9 mph, gusting to 4.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EST
Venue
Beaver Stadium
Capacity
106,572
Elevation
1,178 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure IndianaAway Penn StateHome
This week473 miles0 miles
Last week1,030 miles556 miles
Season total5,946 miles6,470 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days