Rice defeated UAB 24–17 in a one-score game. Rice covered by 8.5; Game went Under by 10.5. Blue Chip Analytics had rated UAB 4.3 points stronger on a neutral field.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Rice Stadium were Partly cloudy, 76.5°F, Feels Like 79.5°F with winds of 10.7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
76.5°F
UAB was shut out in the second half after leading 17-14 at halftime, failing to score any points in the final two quarters.
Ryder Burton was sacked on a critical third-and-5 late in the game and threw an incomplete pass on fourth-and-12, ending a key drive with 1:42 left.
Burton completed 18 of 34 passes for 213 yards with 2 touchdowns, but the offense stalled in the second half, managing only 41 total yards in the final two quarters.
Jevon Jackson ran for 89 yards on 15 carries, but the team as a whole struggled to establish a consistent ground game, especially in the second half.
The defense allowed Rice to score 10 unanswered points in the second half, including a 3-yard touchdown pass that put Rice ahead 21-17, and could not force a stop when needed.
UAB travels 571 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Rice won by 7 in a one-score game.
Rice covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Under by 10.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour UAB (-9.8) over Rice (-14.1) by 4.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Rice faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Rice brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Rice won and Rice covered the spread.
