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Week 11 •
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Northwestern17 @FINAL 38USC

5-3 Big Ten Power rating: 6.5
6-2 Big Ten Power rating: 22.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USC -14.5
PM Implied
USC -10.4
Blue Chip model
USC -19.6
Edge
+5.0USC
See details
◂ favors NUfavors USC ▸Market: USC -14.5
16.3 › USC
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USC
NU
USC
no impact
no impact
2 NU2 USC4 NU4 USCModel: USC -19.6

Betting information

Spread
USC -14.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
NU 20.0 – 34.5 USC
Prediction markets
USC 84% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

USC defeated Northwestern 38–17 to secure a comfortable win. USC covered by 6.5; Game went Over by 0.5. The market closed at USC -14.5 and the Blue Chip model made it USC -19.6 - a gap of 5.0 points toward USC, of which 3.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Northwestern vs USC?

Northwestern

Defense Struggled Against USC's Passing Attack

Northwestern's normally stingy pass defense allowed 299 yards and 2 touchdowns to USC quarterback Jayden Maiava, the most yards allowed by the Wildcats all season. This was a significant departure from their previous performances, as they had not allowed a 200-yard passer before this game.

Offensive Bright Spots in Running Game

Caleb Komolafe rushed for 118 yards and a touchdown, providing a strong ground presence. The Wildcats also had a 13-play drive ending in a touchdown pass to Griffin Wilde, showing they can sustain drives against top competition.

Missed Opportunity on Interception Return

Defensive lineman Najee Story intercepted a pass and was tackled at the goal line, with the ball being knocked out for a touchback. This play could have given Northwestern the lead and shifted momentum, but instead resulted in a missed scoring chance.

Bowl Eligibility Still Within Reach

With a 5-4 record, Northwestern needs one more win in their remaining three games against Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois to become bowl eligible for the second time in three seasons under coach David Braun.

Next Game: Hosting Michigan

Northwestern will host Michigan on Saturday, November 15. The Wildcats will need to improve their pass defense and capitalize on scoring opportunities to compete against a strong Michigan team.

USC

Offensive Explosion Led by Receivers

USC's passing attack was dominant, with Makai Lemon (11 catches, 161 yards, 1 TD) and Ja'Kobi Lane (7 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD) combining for 18 receptions and 235 yards. This performance came against a Northwestern defense that had not allowed a 200-yard passer all season, showing the Trojans' ability to exploit even stingy secondaries.

Balanced Rushing Attack

The Trojans rushed for 183 yards, led by King Miller's 127 yards and a touchdown, plus Jayden Maiava's 6-yard rushing score. This balance kept Northwestern's defense off-balance and allowed USC to control the clock, especially in the second half.

Maiava's Grit and Playmaking

Quarterback Jayden Maiava passed for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns, but his most impactful play was a forced fumble at the goal line on an interception return, preventing a Northwestern touchdown. His toughness and leadership were praised by coach Lincoln Riley as setting the tone for the team.

Improved Consistency on Short Week

USC opened the game with a 16-play touchdown drive, a stark contrast to their struggles against Nebraska the previous week. This demonstrated improved offensive rhythm and execution, which will be crucial against Iowa's stout defense.

Playoff Hopes Alive with Home Success

The Trojans remain unbeaten at the Coliseum this season and have won back-to-back conference games, keeping them in the College Football Playoff conversation. To stay alive, they must continue winning, starting with a home game against Iowa.

What were the weather conditions for Northwestern vs USC?

At kickoff, conditions at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum were Partly cloudy, 64°F with winds of 1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Northwestern travels 1,749 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

USC won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

USC covered the spread.

The total went Over by 0.5 points.

How do Northwestern and USC compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor USC (22.8) over Northwestern (6.5) by 16.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. USC brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Northwestern and USC?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

USC won and USC covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 8, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

64°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity76%
Wind1 mph ESE
Gusts2 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Northwestern at USC: aerial view of Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, wind from the ESE at 0.9 mph, gusting to 1.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM PST
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Capacity
77,500
Elevation
177 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

NorthwesternAway USCHome
This week1,749 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week2,545 miles
Season total5,428 miles13,142 miles
Body clock20:0018:00
Rest14 days7 days

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