Wisconsin defeated Washington 13–10 in a nail-biter. Wisconsin covered by 13.5; Game went Under by 21.5. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Washington 14.8 points stronger on a neutral field.
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At kick-off, conditions at Camp Randall Stadium were Heavy snow, 33.8°F, Wind Chill 28.8°F with winds of 11.4 mph. At 33.8°F, cold conditions may be a minor factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
33.8°F
Washington's offense failed to establish rhythm, especially in the second half played in wintry conditions. Quarterback Demond Williams Jr. completed 20 of 32 passes for only 134 yards with one touchdown and one interception, and the running game was ineffective with star Jonah Coleman limited to 2 yards on five carries before injury.
Leading 10-3 in the second quarter, Washington had the ball on Wisconsin's 36-yard line but threw an interception in the end zone. This missed scoring chance proved costly as the Huskies failed to build a commanding lead against a struggling Wisconsin offense.
Washington's defense held Wisconsin to just 13 points and forced a blocked punt that set up the Huskies' only touchdown. However, the defense could not overcome the offense's inability to sustain drives or capitalize on field position.
Washington played much of the game without starting center Landen Hatchett and right tackle Drew Azzopardi, and star running back Jonah Coleman left with an injury. These absences disrupted offensive continuity and exposed depth issues.
The loss dropped Washington to 2-7 in road games under coach Jedd Fisch. The Huskies will need to address their road performance as they prepare to host Purdue next week.
Wisconsin's defense was the key to the upset, holding Washington to 10 points and forcing key turnovers, including a strip sack that set up the tying touchdown. Linebackers Mason Posa (11 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Cooper Catalano (19 tackles) led the charge, showcasing the potential of the team's young defensive core.
The Badgers' offense managed only 13 points, with quarterback Danny O'Neil leaving the game due to injury in the first quarter. Freshman Carter Smith struggled in relief, completing just 3 of 12 passes for 8 yards, though he added 47 rushing yards and a touchdown. The team's passing game was so limited that a fake punt completion accounted for half of their total passing yards.
Special teams played a crucial role, with Nathanial Vakos hitting the go-ahead field goal and Ben Barten blocking a 50-yard field goal attempt. However, a blocked punt gave Washington a short field for their only touchdown, highlighting both the strengths and vulnerabilities in this phase.
The win came two days after athletic director Chris McIntosh announced that head coach Luke Fickell would return next season, providing a boost to the team. The players rallied around Fickell, snapping a six-game losing streak and ending an 11-game skid against Power Four opponents.
Wisconsin faces a daunting road test against undefeated and second-ranked Indiana. The Badgers will need to rely on their defense to contain Indiana's high-powered offense, while the offense must find consistency, especially if O'Neil is unable to play. The team's ability to build on this upset will be tested against a top-tier opponent.
Washington travels 1,619 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.
Washington arrives with a 2-hour body clock disadvantage.
Wisconsin won by 3 in a nail-biter.
Wisconsin covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Under by 21.5 points.
At 33.8°F, cold conditions may be a minor factor in this game.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Washington (18.1) over Wisconsin (3.3) by 14.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Wisconsin faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Wisconsin brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Wisconsin won and Wisconsin covered the spread.
