Week 11
Rose Bowl

Nebraska28 @FINAL 21UCLA , Week 11, Nov 9, 2025

6-3 Big Ten Power rating: 15.0
3-5 Big Ten Power rating: 6.1

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UCLA -1.5
PM Implied
UCLA -0.1
Blue Chip model
NEB -5.8
Edge
-7.3NEB
See details
◂ favors NEBfavors UCLA ▸Market: UCLA -1.5
‹ 8.9 NEB
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UCLA
UCLA
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5 NEB5 UCLAModel: NEB -5.8

Betting information

Spread
UCLA -1.5
Total
45.5
Odds implied score
NEB 22.0 – 23.5 UCLA
Prediction markets
UCLA 51% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Nebraska defeated UCLA 28–21 in a one-score game. Nebraska covered by 8.5; Game went Over by 3.5. The market closed at UCLA -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Nebraska -5.8 - a gap of 7.3 points toward Nebraska, of which 5.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Nebraska vs UCLA?

UCLA

Struggles Against the Run

UCLA's defense allowed Nebraska's Emmett Johnson to rush for 129 yards and a touchdown, plus 103 receiving yards and two more scores. Interim coach Tim Skipper admitted the game plan was to stop Johnson, but they failed, indicating a critical weakness against versatile running backs.

Slow Start and Missed Opportunities

UCLA fell behind 27-7 in the first half, with their only first-half score coming on a direct snap run. A missed field goal just before halftime further hindered their comeback, highlighting issues with early-game execution and special teams.

Nico Iamaleava's Resilience

Despite being hit repeatedly, quarterback Nico Iamaleava completed 17 of 25 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns, and led the team in rushing with 86 yards. His toughness kept UCLA in the game, but the offense needed more support from the run game and defense.

Late Rally Falls Short

UCLA scored two touchdowns in the second half, including a 45-yard pass and a 9-yard score with under five minutes left, to cut the lead to 28-21. However, they couldn't complete the comeback, showing fight but an inability to overcome the early deficit.

Daunting Upcoming Schedule

After a bye week, UCLA faces No. 1 Ohio State on the road, followed by No. 24 Washington and No. 20 USC. With a 3-6 record, they need to drastically improve on both sides of the ball to compete against these ranked opponents.

What were the weather conditions for Nebraska vs UCLA?

At kickoff, conditions at Rose Bowl were Clear, 67°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Nebraska travels 1,262 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Nebraska won by 7 in a one-score game.

Nebraska covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 3.5 points.

How do Nebraska and UCLA compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Nebraska (15.0) over UCLA (6.1) by 8.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UCLA faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UCLA brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Nebraska won and Nebraska covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 9, 2025 Game-time

Clear

67°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity42%
Wind3 mph NNE
Gusts7 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Nebraska at UCLA: aerial view of Rose Bowl, wind from the NNE at 3.4 mph, gusting to 6.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM PST
Venue
Rose Bowl
Capacity
89,702
Elevation
810 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure NebraskaAway UCLAHome
This week1,262 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total4,385 miles11,281 miles
Body clock20:0018:00
Rest8 days15 days