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Week 11 •
Centennial Bank Stadium

Southern Miss27 @FINAL 21Arkansas State

6-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -3.4
5-4 Sun Belt Power rating: -9.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USM -6.5
PM Implied
USM -3.6
Blue Chip model
USM -3.6
Edge
+2.9ARST
See details
◂ favors USMfavors ARST ▸Market: USM -6.5
‹ 6.0 USM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARST
USM
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 USM1 ARST2 USM2 ARST3 USM3 ARSTModel: USM -3.6

Betting information

Spread
USM -6.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
USM 30.5 – 24.0 ARST
Prediction markets
USM 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Southern Miss defeated Arkansas State 27–21 in a closely contested finish. Arkansas State covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 6.5. The market closed at Southern Miss -6.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Southern Miss -3.6, an edge of 2.9 points toward Arkansas State.

What were the weather conditions for Southern Miss vs Arkansas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Centennial Bank Stadium were Clear, 70°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Southern Miss travels 321 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Southern Miss won by 6 in a closely contested finish.

Arkansas State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 6.5 points.

How do Southern Miss and Arkansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Southern Miss (-3.4) over Arkansas State (-9.4) by 6.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Southern Miss and Arkansas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Southern Miss won and Arkansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 8, 2025 Game-time

Clear

70°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity39%
Wind5 mph WSW
Gusts8 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Southern Miss at Arkansas State: aerial view of Centennial Bank Stadium, wind from the WSW at 4.9 mph, gusting to 7.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CST
Venue
Centennial Bank Stadium
Capacity
16,343
Elevation
302 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Southern MissAway Arkansas StateHome
This week321 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week778 miles
Season total2,002 miles3,006 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest14 days6 days

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