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Week 11 •
Williams Stadium (VA)

Missouri State21 @FINAL 17Liberty

5-3 CUSA Power rating: -14.1
4-4 CUSA Power rating: -7.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
LIB -7.5
PM Implied
LIB -5.9
Blue Chip model
LIB -9.1
Edge
+1.6LIB
See details
◂ favors MOSTfavors LIB ▸Market: LIB -7.5
7.0 › LIB
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
LIB
MOST
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 MOST1 LIB2 MOST2 LIBModel: LIB -9.1

Betting information

Spread
LIB -7.5
Total
51.5
Odds implied score
MOST 22.0 – 29.5 LIB
Prediction markets
LIB 72% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Missouri State defeated Liberty 21–17 in a closely contested finish. Missouri State covered by 11.5; Game went Under by 13.5. The market closed at Liberty -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Liberty -9.1, an edge of 1.6 points toward Liberty. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Liberty 7.0 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Missouri State vs Liberty?

Missouri State

Clutch Late-Game Execution

Missouri State demonstrated exceptional poise under pressure, driving 70 yards in the final minute to score the game-winning touchdown with 27 seconds left. This ability to perform in high-stakes situations is a key strength moving forward.

Jacob Clark's Passing Efficiency

Quarterback Jacob Clark completed 20 of 33 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner. His accuracy and ability to connect on deep passes (22, 20, and 15 yards on the final drive) make him a reliable leader for the offense.

Defensive Resilience in the Fourth Quarter

After allowing a go-ahead touchdown with 8:10 remaining, the Bears' defense stiffened, forcing Liberty to not cross midfield on their last three possessions and securing an interception to seal the win. This defensive tenacity is crucial for close games ahead.

Balanced Offensive Attack

Missouri State's offense showed balance with both passing and rushing touchdowns. Clark's 1-yard plunge and a 28-yard TD pass to Jmariyae Robinson highlighted their ability to score in multiple ways, keeping defenses guessing.

Improved Second-Half Performance

After trailing 10-0 at halftime, the Bears outscored Liberty 21-7 in the second half. This comeback ability indicates strong halftime adjustments and mental toughness, which bodes well for future contests.

What were the weather conditions for Missouri State vs Liberty?

At kickoff, conditions at Williams Stadium (VA) were Clear, 62°F with winds of 0 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Missouri State travels 777 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Missouri State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Missouri State won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

Missouri State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 13.5 points.

How do Missouri State and Liberty compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Liberty (-7.1) over Missouri State (-14.1) by 7.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Liberty brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Missouri State and Liberty?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Missouri State won and Missouri State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 8, 2025 Game-time

Clear

62°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity61%
Wind0 mph S
Gusts1 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Missouri State at Liberty: aerial view of Williams Stadium (VA), wind from the S at 0.4 mph, gusting to 0.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM EST
Venue
Williams Stadium (VA)
Capacity
25,000
Elevation
883 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Missouri StateAway LibertyHome
This week777 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total7,282 miles5,141 miles
Body clock12:0013:00
Rest9 days7 days

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