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Week 11 • November 09, 2025, 12:00 AM UTC
California @ Louisville
5-4
ACC
Power Rank: -0.7
29 FINAL 26
7-1
ACC
Power Rank: 16.0
California covered by 23.5 | Game went Over by 4.5

By · Last updated

California defeated Louisville 29–26 in a nail-biter. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Louisville 16.7 points stronger on a neutral field.

California @ Louisville Preview

General Information

Week: Week 11
Kick Off (at stadium): 07:00 PM EST
Stadium: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Capacity: 60,800
Elevation: 466 ft
HFA Rating: 3.2
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Louisville -20.5
Total (O/U) 50.5
Expected Score CAL 15.0 - 35.5 LOU
Power Rank Implied Line Louisville +16.7
Prediction Markets Louisville 91% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Mist

Mist

17.6°F

Wind Chill: 11.0°F
Wind: 4.3 mph SW
Gusts: 7.8 mph
Precipitation: 0.01"
Humidity: 95%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

California (Away)

This Week: 1977.6 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 13738.8 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:00
Rest Days: 8

Louisville (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 600.6 miles
Season Total: 3095.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 8

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Louisville -20.5
Total Points 50.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
California -0.7
Louisville 16.0
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 1978 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Capacity 60,800
Elevation 466 ft
Weather: Mist
Temperature 17.6°F
Wind Speed 4.3 mph
Your Line Louisville +16.7
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for California vs Louisville?

California: Key Factors

Louisville: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

California travels 1,978 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

California arrives with a 3-hour body clock disadvantage.

California won by 3 in a nail-biter.

California covered the spread, covering the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium?

At 17.6°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Precipitation chance is 71%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do California and Louisville compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Louisville (16.0) over California (-0.7) by 16.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Louisville brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on California and Louisville?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

California won and California covered the spread.