Week 11
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

California29 @FINAL 26Louisville , Week 11, Nov 9, 2025

5-4 ACC Power rating: -0.7
7-1 ACC Power rating: 16.0

How did the line hold up?

Market line
LOU -18.5
PM Implied
LOU -14.3
Blue Chip model
LOU -20.6
Edge
+2.1LOU
See details
◂ favors CALfavors LOU ▸Market: LOU -18.5
16.7 › LOU
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1 CAL1 LOU2 CAL2 LOU3 CAL3 LOUModel: LOU -20.6

Betting information

Spread
LOU -18.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
CAL 15.0 – 33.5 LOU
Prediction markets
LOU 91% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

California defeated Louisville 29–26 in a nail-biter. California covered by 21.5; Game went Over by 6.5. The market closed at Louisville -18.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Louisville -20.6, an edge of 2.1 points toward Louisville. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Louisville 16.7 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for California vs Louisville?

Louisville

Offensive Struggles in Key Moments

Louisville's offense, led by Miller Moss (20/38, 203 yards, 1 rushing TD), was held to 351 total yards and failed to capitalize on scoring opportunities, settling for field goals in overtime. The passing attack was limited to 203 yards, well below their usual high-octane standard.

Defensive Lapses Against Ranked Opponent

The defense allowed 427 total yards and 29 points, including a game-winning touchdown in overtime. Despite forcing a field goal in OT, they couldn't stop Cal's aggressive offense on fourth down, highlighting issues in high-pressure situations.

Turnover Margin and Missed Opportunities

Louisville committed the game's only turnover (an interception by Hezekiah Masses), which led to a Cal field goal. The Cardinals failed to force any turnovers, losing the turnover battle and missing a chance to gain an edge in a tight game.

Inability to Close Out Games

Louisville led for most of the first half but had to rally after halftime, tying the game with a field goal. They couldn't build on leads and lost in overtime, continuing a pattern of struggling to finish games against ACC newcomers (0-3 vs. Stanford, SMU, Cal).

Key Players and Bright Spots

Keyjaun Brown rushed for 136 yards on 14 carries, and Duke Watson scored a rushing touchdown. Kicker Cooper Ranvier made four field goals (49, 49, 39, 30 yards), but the offense's inconsistency and defensive breakdowns overshadowed these performances.

What were the weather conditions for California vs Louisville?

At kickoff, conditions at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium were Overcast, 54°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

California travels 1,978 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

California won by 3 in a nail-biter.

California covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 6.5 points.

How do California and Louisville compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Louisville (16.0) over California (-0.7) by 16.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Louisville brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

California won and California covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 9, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

54°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity86%
Wind6 mph SSE
Gusts12 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for California at Louisville: aerial view of L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, wind from the SSE at 5.6 mph, gusting to 11.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EST
Venue
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Capacity
60,800
Elevation
466 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure CaliforniaAway LouisvilleHome
This week1,978 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game601 miles
Season total13,739 miles3,096 miles
Body clock16:0019:00
Rest8 days8 days