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Week 11 •
FBC Mortgage Stadium

Houston30 @FINAL 27UCF

7-2 Big 12 Power rating: 8.4
4-4 Big 12 Power rating: 8.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UCF -1.5
PM Implied
HOU -0.6
Blue Chip model
UCF -2.8
Edge
+1.3UCF
See details
◂ favors HOUfavors UCF ▸Market: UCF -1.5
HOU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UCF
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 HOU1 UCF2 HOU2 UCF3 HOU3 UCFModel: UCF -2.8

Betting information

Spread
UCF -1.5
Total
47.5
Odds implied score
HOU 23.0 – 24.5 UCF
Prediction markets
HOU 53% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Houston defeated UCF 30–27 in a nail-biter. Houston covered by 4.5; Game went Over by 9.5. The market closed at UCF -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UCF -2.8, an edge of 1.3 points toward UCF.

What were the weather conditions for Houston vs UCF?

At kickoff, conditions at FBC Mortgage Stadium were Patchy rain possible, 70°F with winds of 5 mph. There is a 100% chance of rain, though little accumulation is expected. Blue Chip has not been able to measure a reliable line effect from rain, so treat this as context rather than signal. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Houston travels 859 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Houston arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Houston won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Houston covered the spread.

The total went Over by 9.5 points.

How do Houston and UCF compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Houston (8.4) and UCF (8.0) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. UCF brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Houston and UCF?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Houston won and Houston covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 8, 2025 Game-time

Patchy rain possible

70°F

Rain100%
Precip0.01"
Humidity98%
Wind5 mph S
Gusts9 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Houston at UCF: aerial view of FBC Mortgage Stadium, wind from the S at 4.9 mph, gusting to 9.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
08:00 PM EST
Venue
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Capacity
44,206
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

HoustonAway UCFHome
This week859 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,948 miles
Season total7,462 miles5,737 miles
Body clock19:0020:00
Rest7 days7 days

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