Houston defeated UCF 30–27 in a nail-biter. Houston covered by 4.5; Game went Over by 9.5.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at FBC Mortgage Stadium were Patchy rain possible, 70.0°F, Feels Like 70.0°F with winds of 4.9 mph. Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
70.0°F
Houston travels 859 miles to this game, a significant road trip.
Houston arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
Houston won by 3 in a nail-biter.
Houston covered the spread.
The total went Over by 9.5 points.
Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Houston (8.4) and UCF (8.0) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, HFA, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. UCF brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Houston won and Houston covered the spread.
