@ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @
Week 11 •
Cajun Field

Texas State39 @FINAL 42Louisiana

3-5 Sun Belt Power rating: -3.8
3-6 Sun Belt Power rating: -8.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TXST -3.5
PM Implied
TXST -2.6
Blue Chip model
TXST -2.6
Edge
+0.9UL
See details
◂ favors TXSTfavors UL ▸Market: TXST -3.5
‹ 5.1 TXST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UL
TXST
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 TXST1 UL2 TXST2 UL3 TXST3 ULModel: TXST -2.6

Betting information

Spread
TXST -3.5
Total
62.5
Odds implied score
TXST 33.0 – 29.5 UL
Prediction markets
TXST 61% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Louisiana defeated Texas State 42–39 in a nail-biter. Louisiana covered by 6.5; Game went Over by 18.5. The market closed at Texas State -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas State -2.6. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Texas State 5.1 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Texas State vs Louisiana?

At kickoff, conditions at Cajun Field were Fog, 68°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Texas State travels 353 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Louisiana won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Louisiana covered the spread.

The total went Over by 18.5 points.

How do Texas State and Louisiana compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas State (-3.8) over Louisiana (-8.9) by 5.1 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Louisiana faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Louisiana brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Texas State and Louisiana?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Louisiana won and Louisiana covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 8, 2025 Game-time

Fog

68°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity98%
Wind7 mph SSW
Gusts15 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Texas State at Louisiana: aerial view of Cajun Field, wind from the SSW at 7.4 mph, gusting to 15.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
04:00 PM CST
Venue
Cajun Field
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
62 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Texas StateAway LouisianaHome
This week353 miles2 miles
Last weekHome game461 miles
Season total5,469 miles6,196 miles
Body clock16:0016:00
Rest10 days7 days

Other games this week