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Week 11 •
Amon G. Carter Stadium

Iowa State20 @FINAL 17TCU

5-4 Big 12 Power rating: 13.5
6-2 Big 12 Power rating: 13.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TCU -7.5
PM Implied
TCU -6.5
Blue Chip model
TCU -4.0
Edge
-3.5ISU
See details
◂ favors ISUfavors TCU ▸Market: TCU -7.5
no impact
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TCU
TCU
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 ISU2 TCU4 ISU4 TCUModel: TCU -4.0

Betting information

Spread
TCU -7.5
Total
58.5
Odds implied score
ISU 25.5 – 33.0 TCU
Prediction markets
TCU 74% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Iowa State defeated TCU 20–17 in a nail-biter. Iowa State covered by 10.5; Game went Under by 21.5. The market closed at TCU -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it TCU -4.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Iowa State, of which 2.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Iowa State vs TCU?

At kickoff, conditions at Amon G. Carter Stadium were Clear, 68°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Iowa State travels 674 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Iowa State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Iowa State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 21.5 points.

How do Iowa State and TCU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Iowa State (13.5) and TCU (13.5) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. TCU brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Iowa State and TCU?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Iowa State won and Iowa State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 8, 2025 Game-time

Clear

68°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity83%
Wind9 mph NE
Gusts18 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Iowa State at TCU: aerial view of Amon G. Carter Stadium, wind from the NE at 9.4 mph, gusting to 18.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CST
Venue
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Capacity
47,000
Elevation
646 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Iowa StateAway TCUHome
This week674 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total11,648 miles6,893 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days14 days

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