DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Alabama defeated LSU 20–9 in a double-digit victory. Alabama covered by 1.0; Game went Under by 20.5. The market closed at Alabama -10.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Alabama -15.1 - a gap of 5.1 points toward Alabama, of which 4.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
LSU managed only 9 points and 232 total yards, failing to score a touchdown for the first time since 2012. Starting QB Garrett Nussmeier was benched in the third quarter for Michael Van Buren, raising uncertainty about the starting role for the remainder of the season.
The Tigers reached the red zone four times but came away with just nine points, highlighting a critical inability to finish drives. This inefficiency was a major factor in the loss and must be addressed to compete in future games.
LSU committed 10 penalties, which disrupted offensive rhythm and extended defensive drives. Reducing penalties will be essential for improving performance against Arkansas.
Wide receiver Nic Anderson left the game in the third quarter with a knee injury and returned to the sideline on crutches. His status for next week is uncertain, which could further hamper an already struggling passing attack.
The loss marks LSU's third straight defeat and fourth in five games, effectively ending any College Football Playoff aspirations. The team must regroup quickly to salvage the season and build momentum for next year.
Alabama's defense held LSU to 232 yards and 13 first downs, keeping them out of the end zone for the first time since 2012. This performance shows the defense is peaking at the right time, which bodes well for upcoming games.
Despite 277 passing yards and a touchdown from Ty Simpson, the offense struggled to put the game away, missing deep throws and managing only 56 rushing yards. This inconsistency could be a concern against tougher opponents.
Alabama's offense relied on four passes of 30+ yards in the first half, exploiting LSU's secondary. However, the lack of a consistent run game may limit their ability to control the clock and close out games.
The Crimson Tide extended their FBS-best home winning streak to 17 games, maintaining a strong home-field advantage. This will be crucial as they host No. 11 Oklahoma next week.
With the win, Alabama remains on track for the SEC title game and College Football Playoff. They control their destiny with two conference games left, but must improve offensive execution to avoid upsets.
At kickoff, conditions at Bryant-Denny Stadium were Cloudy, 68°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Cloudy
68°F
| Measure | LSUAway | AlabamaHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 288 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Bye week | Bye week |
| Season total | 2,940 miles | 2,747 miles |
| Body clock | 18:30 | 18:30 |
| Rest | 15 days | 15 days |
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