Week 11
Notre Dame Stadium

Navy10 @FINAL 49Notre Dame , Week 11, Nov 9, 2025

7-1 American Power rating: 2.4
6-2 Independent Power rating: 27.7

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ND -30.5
PM Implied
ND -19.2
Blue Chip model
ND -27.3
Edge
-3.2NAVY
See details
◂ favors NAVYfavors ND ▸Market: ND -30.5
25.3 › ND
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1 NAVY1 ND2 NAVY2 ND3 NAVY3 NDModel: ND -27.3

Betting information

Spread
ND -30.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
NAVY 12.0 – 42.5 ND
Prediction markets
ND 96% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Notre Dame defeated Navy 49–10 in a dominant performance. Notre Dame covered by 8.5; Game went Over by 4.5. The market closed at Notre Dame -30.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Notre Dame -27.3, an edge of 3.2 points toward Navy.

What are the key factors for Navy vs Notre Dame?

Notre Dame

Dominant Offensive Performance

Notre Dame scored 49 points, with QB C.J. Carr throwing for 218 yards and 3 TDs, and RB Jeremiyah Love rushing for 94 yards and 2 TDs, including a spectacular 48-yard run. The offense was efficient and explosive, even in snowy conditions.

Defensive Adjustments in Second Half

After allowing 154 rushing yards in the first half to Navy's triple-option attack, Notre Dame's defense tightened up, limiting Navy to just 52 rushing yards in the second half. This adjustment was key to turning a close game into a blowout.

Heisman Hype for Jeremiyah Love

Coach Marcus Freeman publicly stated that RB Jeremiyah Love deserves Heisman consideration, highlighting his game-breaking ability. Love's highlight-reel touchdown run and consistent production make him a focal point of the offense.

Carr's Poise in Adverse Conditions

QB C.J. Carr, a Michigan native, thrived in the rain and snow, completing 13 of 16 passes. His ability to handle poor weather and maintain accuracy is a positive sign for potential future games in similar conditions.

Momentum and Playoff Implications

Notre Dame extended its winning streak to seven games and is ranked No. 10 in the first College Football Playoff rankings. The dominant win adds style points that could boost their playoff resume as they head into a road game at Pittsburgh.

What were the weather conditions for Navy vs Notre Dame?

At kickoff, conditions at Notre Dame Stadium were Moderate or heavy sleet, 36°F, wind chill 29°F with winds of 9 mph. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.18 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Navy travels 546 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Notre Dame won by 39 in a dominant performance.

Notre Dame covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

How do Navy and Notre Dame compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Notre Dame (27.7) over Navy (2.4) by 25.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Notre Dame brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Notre Dame won and Notre Dame covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 9, 2025 Game-time

Moderate or heavy sleet

36°F

Rain100%
Precip0.18"
Humidity95%
Wind9 mph NE
Gusts13 mph
Wind chill29°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Navy at Notre Dame: aerial view of Notre Dame Stadium, wind from the NE at 9.2 mph, gusting to 12.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EST
Venue
Notre Dame Stadium
Capacity
77,622
Elevation
755 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure NavyAway Notre DameHome
This week546 miles0 miles
Last week2,438 miles1,551 miles
Season total5,341 miles4,982 miles
Body clock19:3019:30
Rest8 days8 days