Week 11
Peden Stadium

Miami (OH)20 @FINAL 24Ohio , Week 11, Nov 5, 2025

5-3 MAC Power rating: -5.4
5-3 MAC Power rating: -0.5

How did the line hold up?

Market line
OHIO -2.5
PM Implied
OHIO -2.1
Blue Chip model
OHIO -8.2
Edge
+5.7OHIO
See details
◂ favors M-OHfavors OHIO ▸Market: OHIO -2.5
OHIO
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OHIO
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 M-OH2 OHIO4 M-OH4 OHIO6 M-OH6 OHIOModel: OHIO -8.2

Betting information

Spread
OHIO -2.5
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
M-OH 24.0 – 26.5 OHIO
Prediction markets
OHIO 59% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ohio defeated Miami (OH) 24–20 in a closely contested finish. Ohio covered by 1.5; Game went Under by 6.5. The market closed at Ohio -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ohio -8.2 - a gap of 5.7 points toward Ohio, of which 5.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Miami (OH) vs Ohio?

Miami (OH)

Close Loss in Tight Game

Miami (OH) lost 24-20 to Ohio in a closely contested MAC matchup, falling to 5-4 overall and 4-1 in conference play, creating a four-way tie atop the MAC.

Quarterback Performance

Dequan Finn threw for 194 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, including a 27-yard TD to Kam Perry and a 4-yard TD to Braylon Isom, but his late interception sealed the loss.

Defensive Struggles on Special Teams

Miami's defense allowed a 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Sieh Bangura, which shifted momentum and ultimately contributed to the defeat.

Offensive Inconsistency

Despite taking the lead twice in the fourth quarter, Miami's offense failed to sustain drives, allowing Ohio to score the game-winning touchdown with 2:15 left.

Next Game Outlook

Miami (OH) will need to improve defensive discipline on special teams and maintain offensive consistency to stay competitive in the MAC title race, as they face another tough conference opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Miami (OH) vs Ohio?

At kickoff, conditions at Peden Stadium were Clear, 48°F, wind chill 46°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Miami (OH) travels 141 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Ohio won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

Ohio covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 6.5 points.

How do Miami (OH) and Ohio compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ohio (-0.5) over Miami (OH) (-5.4) by 4.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ohio brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Ohio won and Ohio covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 5, 2025 Game-time

Clear

48°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity51%
Wind5 mph S
Gusts11 mph
Wind chill46°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Miami (OH) at Ohio: aerial view of Peden Stadium, wind from the S at 5.1 mph, gusting to 10.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EST
Venue
Peden Stadium
Capacity
25,210
Elevation
640 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Miami (OH)Away OhioHome
This week141 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total2,872 miles1,773 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest11 days11 days