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Week 11 •
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

San Diego State6 @FINAL 38Hawai'i

7-1 MW Power rating: 2.3
6-3 MW Power rating: -5.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SDSU -6.5
PM Implied
SDSU -5.4
Blue Chip model
SDSU -2.6
Edge
+3.9HAW
See details
◂ favors SDSUfavors HAW ▸Market: SDSU -6.5
‹ 7.8 SDSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
HAW
no impact
HAW
no impact
HAW
2 SDSU2 HAW4 SDSU4 HAWModel: SDSU -2.6

Betting information

Spread
SDSU -6.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
SDSU 27.5 – 21.0 HAW
Prediction markets
SDSU 71% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Hawai'i defeated San Diego State 38–6 in a dominant performance. Hawai'i covered by 38.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at San Diego State -6.5 and the Blue Chip model made it San Diego State -2.6, an edge of 3.9 points toward Hawai'i. Blue Chip Analytics had rated San Diego State 7.8 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for San Diego State vs Hawai'i?

At kickoff, conditions at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex were Patchy rain possible, 73°F with winds of 17 mph. Wind of 17 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 22 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

San Diego State travels 2,613 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Hawai'i won by 32 in a dominant performance.

Hawai'i covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do San Diego State and Hawai'i compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor San Diego State (2.3) over Hawai'i (-5.5) by 7.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Hawai'i faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Hawai'i brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on San Diego State and Hawai'i?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Hawai'i won and Hawai'i covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 9, 2025 Game-time

Patchy rain possible

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity77%
Wind17 mph NE
Gusts22 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for San Diego State at Hawai'i: aerial view of Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, wind from the NE at 17.2 mph, gusting to 21.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM HST
Venue
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Capacity
16,909
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

San Diego StateAway Hawai'iHome
This week2,613 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game4,829 miles
Season total9,496 miles24,142 miles
Body clock20:0018:00
Rest8 days7 days

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