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Week 11 •
Scott Stadium

Wake Forest16 @FINAL 9Virginia

5-3 ACC Power rating: 0.7
8-1 ACC Power rating: 11.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UVA -7.0
PM Implied
UVA -5.0
Blue Chip model
UVA -12.3
Edge
+5.3UVA
See details
◂ favors WAKEfavors UVA ▸Market: UVA -7.0
10.6 › UVA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UVA
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 WAKE2 UVA4 WAKE4 UVA6 WAKE6 UVAModel: UVA -12.3

Betting information

Spread
UVA -7.0
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
WAKE 20.8 – 27.8 UVA
Prediction markets
UVA 69% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Wake Forest defeated Virginia 16–9 in a one-score game. Wake Forest covered by 14.0; Game went Under by 23.5. The market closed at Virginia -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Virginia -12.3 - a gap of 5.3 points toward Virginia, of which 4.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Virginia 10.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Wake Forest vs Virginia?

Wake Forest

Defense Dominates, Forces Turnovers

Wake Forest's defense held Virginia to just 9 points and forced three fumbles (two by backup QB Kaelin, one by RB Taylor), despite allowing 327 total yards. This was key to the win, as Virginia had not lost a fumble all season entering the game.

Special Teams Provides the Only Touchdown

Carlos Hernandez returned a bouncing punt 88 yards for the game's only touchdown in the third quarter, which proved to be the difference in a 16-9 victory. This highlights the importance of special teams in low-scoring games.

Kicking Game Delivers in Clutch

Kicker Connor Calvert made three field goals, including two from 50 and 49 yards in the second half, providing all of Wake Forest's other points. His reliability from long range was crucial in a game where the offense struggled.

Offensive Struggles Continue

Wake Forest's offense managed only 203 total yards and 64 passing yards, with Demond Claiborne rushing 25 times for 75 yards. The unit failed to score a touchdown, relying on defense and special teams to win.

Bowl Eligibility Achieved Under New Coach

The win made Wake Forest bowl-eligible (6-3) in Jake Dickert's first season, bouncing back from a 42-7 loss to Florida State. This resilience could boost confidence heading into a home game against North Carolina.

What were the weather conditions for Wake Forest vs Virginia?

At kickoff, conditions at Scott Stadium were Clear, 52°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Wake Forest travels 163 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Wake Forest won by 7 in a one-score game.

Wake Forest covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 23.5 points.

How do Wake Forest and Virginia compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Virginia (11.3) over Wake Forest (0.7) by 10.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Virginia brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Wake Forest and Virginia?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Wake Forest won and Wake Forest covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 9, 2025 Game-time

Clear

52°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity86%
Wind2 mph W
Gusts4 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Wake Forest at Virginia: aerial view of Scott Stadium, wind from the W at 1.8 mph, gusting to 3.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EST
Venue
Scott Stadium
Capacity
61,500
Elevation
545 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Wake ForestAway VirginiaHome
This week163 miles0 miles
Last week914 miles4,732 miles
Season total5,860 miles6,129 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest8 days8 days

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