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Week 11 •
Pratt & Whitney Stadium

Duke34 @FINAL 37UConn

5-3 ACC Power rating: 11.1
6-3 Independent Power rating: -1.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
DUKE -7.5
PM Implied
DUKE -6.2
Blue Chip model
DUKE -9.4
Edge
-1.9DUKE
See details
◂ favors DUKEfavors CONN ▸Market: DUKE -7.5
‹ 12.9 DUKE
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
CONN
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 DUKE2 CONN4 DUKE4 CONNModel: DUKE -9.4

Betting information

Spread
DUKE -7.5
Total
63.5
Odds implied score
DUKE 35.5 – 28.0 CONN
Prediction markets
DUKE 73% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UConn defeated Duke 37–34 in a nail-biter. UConn covered by 10.5; Game went Over by 7.5. The market closed at Duke -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Duke -9.4, an edge of 1.9 points toward Duke. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Duke 12.9 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Duke vs UConn?

Duke

Turnover woes continue

Duke is minus-nine in turnover margin in their four losses this season, including two interceptions thrown by Darian Mensah in this game that led to UConn field goals.

Offensive efficiency in second half

Duke scored on its first two drives of the second half, with a 3-yard rushing touchdown by Nate Sheppard and a fourth-and-goal touchdown pass from Mensah to Landen King, showing ability to move the ball.

Defensive collapse in clutch moments

Duke's defense allowed UConn to convert a fake punt and drive for a go-ahead touchdown with 10:48 left, then gave up a game-winning touchdown drive with 1:58 remaining, highlighting late-game struggles.

Mensah's mixed performance

Mensah threw for 222 yards and three touchdowns but also had two interceptions, contributing to the team's turnover issues and inability to close out the game.

Next opponent: Virginia

Duke hosts Virginia on Saturday, needing to improve turnover margin and late-game execution to get back on track after a tough loss.

UConn

Resilience in Close Games

UConn's 37-34 win over Duke was built on lessons from three previous losses by a total of 13 points. The team showed composure in a late-game drive, with QB Joe Fagnano going 6-for-7 and throwing a 19-yard TD pass to Skyler Bell with 1:58 left, plus a successful two-point conversion run.

Defensive Clutch Play

The defense sealed the win with a strip-sack fumble recovery by Bryun Parham and Trent Jones as Duke drove for a potential tying score. This was the biggest defensive play of the season, highlighting the unit's ability to make game-changing stops.

Offensive Firepower

Fagnano threw for 311 yards and three TDs without an interception this season. Bell had 11 catches for 87 yards and two TDs, surpassing 1,000 receiving yards and setting the program record for TD catches in a season. Reymello Murphy added 110 receiving yards.

Turnover Margin Success

UConn's defense forced two interceptions in the first half, both leading to field goals. The team's ability to create turnovers while avoiding them on offense (Fagnano has no INTs) has been key to their 7-3 record.

Momentum for Air Force Matchup

The win over an ACC contender like Duke, combined with a second ACC victory this season, builds confidence. UConn hosts Air Force next, and their balanced attack and resilient defense should be factors against a service academy team.

What were the weather conditions for Duke vs UConn?

At kickoff, conditions at Pratt & Whitney Stadium were Clear, 50°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Duke travels 523 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

UConn won by 3 in a nail-biter.

UConn covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 7.5 points.

How do Duke and UConn compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Duke (11.1) over UConn (-1.8) by 12.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UConn faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UConn brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Duke and UConn?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UConn won and UConn covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 8, 2025 Game-time

Clear

50°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity71%
Wind5 mph NNW
Gusts8 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Duke at UConn: aerial view of Pratt & Whitney Stadium, wind from the NNW at 4.9 mph, gusting to 8.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EST
Venue
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Capacity
36,000
Elevation
46 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

DukeAway UConnHome
This week523 miles0 miles
Last week477 milesHome game
Season total8,317 miles4,699 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest7 days7 days

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