Week 11
Scheumann Stadium

Kent State13 @FINAL 17Ball State , Week 11, Nov 6, 2025

3-5 MAC Power rating: -24.2
3-5 MAC Power rating: -16.3

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BALL -3.0
PM Implied
BALL -2.4
Blue Chip model
BALL -11.1
Edge
+8.1BALL
See details
◂ favors KENTfavors BALL ▸Market: BALL -3.0
BALL
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BALL
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 KENT5 BALLModel: BALL -11.1

Betting information

Spread
BALL -3.0
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
KENT 22.8 – 25.8 BALL
Prediction markets
BALL 59% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ball State defeated Kent State 17–13 in a closely contested finish. Ball State covered by 1.0; Game went Under by 18.5. The market closed at Ball State -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Ball State -11.1 - a gap of 8.1 points toward Ball State, of which 7.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Kent State vs Ball State?

At kickoff, conditions at Scheumann Stadium were Clear, 40°F, wind chill 36°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Kent State travels 225 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Ball State won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

Ball State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 18.5 points.

How do Kent State and Ball State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ball State (-16.3) over Kent State (-24.2) by 7.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ball State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Ball State won and Ball State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 6, 2025 Game-time

Clear

40°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity91%
Wind4 mph NW
Gusts8 mph
Wind chill36°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Kent State at Ball State: aerial view of Scheumann Stadium, wind from the NW at 3.8 mph, gusting to 7.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EST
Venue
Scheumann Stadium
Capacity
16,319
Elevation
951 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Kent StateAway Ball StateHome
This week225 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total6,404 miles3,275 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest12 days12 days