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Week 11 •
Kroger Field

Florida7 @FINAL 38Kentucky

3-5 SEC Power rating: 15.1
3-5 SEC Power rating: 8.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
FLA -4.5
PM Implied
FLA -3.1
Blue Chip model
FLA -4.4
Edge
+0.1UK
See details
◂ favors FLAfavors UK ▸Market: FLA -4.5
‹ 7.1 FLA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UK
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 FLA1 UK2 FLA2 UK3 FLA3 UKModel: FLA -4.4

Betting information

Spread
FLA -4.5
Total
44.5
Odds implied score
FLA 24.5 – 20.0 UK
Prediction markets
FLA 63% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Kentucky defeated Florida 38–7 in a dominant performance. Kentucky covered by 35.5; Game went Over by 0.5. The market closed at Florida -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Florida -4.4. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Florida 7.1 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Florida vs Kentucky?

Florida

Turnover Troubles

Florida committed four turnovers, including three interceptions by QB DJ Lagway in the first half, leading to 10 points for Kentucky and a 24-7 halftime deficit.

Defensive Struggles

Despite entering the game ranked 32nd in points allowed per game (20.5), the Gators gave up 401 total yards and 38 points, unable to overcome the turnovers.

Quarterback Uncertainty

Lagway was benched after three first-half interceptions, replaced by freshman Tramell Jones Jr. in the second half, raising questions about the starting QB for next week.

Post-Firing Slump

This was Florida's second straight loss since head coach Billy Napier was fired on Oct. 19, dropping the team to 3-6 overall and 2-4 in SEC play.

Tough Road Ahead

Florida travels to face No. 7 Mississippi next, a formidable opponent that will test the Gators' ability to rebound from a disastrous performance.

Kentucky

Turnover Dominance

Kentucky capitalized on four Florida turnovers, scoring 10 points off miscues and forcing three interceptions in the first half alone, which set the tone for a 38-7 blowout win.

Balanced Offensive Attack

Cutter Boley threw for 168 yards and two touchdowns, completing passes to 10 different receivers, while Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell combined for three rushing touchdowns, including a 65-yard run, totaling 401 yards of offense.

Path to Bowl Eligibility

With consecutive wins, Kentucky (4-5) needs to win two of their remaining three games (vs. Tennessee Tech, at Vanderbilt, at Louisville) to become bowl eligible, starting with a must-win against FCS No. 5 Tennessee Tech next week.

Defensive Resilience

The Wildcats' defense forced four turnovers and held Florida to just 7 points, bouncing back from previous struggles and providing a spark that led to the team's first home SEC win since 2023.

Momentum from Second-Half Drive

Kentucky opened the third quarter with a 13-play, 7:26 drive that ended in a touchdown, effectively putting the game away and showcasing the team's ability to control the clock and maintain balance.

What were the weather conditions for Florida vs Kentucky?

At kickoff, conditions at Kroger Field were Partly cloudy, 49°F, wind chill 46°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Florida travels 590 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Kentucky won by 31 in a dominant performance.

Kentucky covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 0.5 points.

How do Florida and Kentucky compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Florida (15.1) over Kentucky (8.0) by 7.1 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Kentucky faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Kentucky brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Florida and Kentucky?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Kentucky won and Kentucky covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 9, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

49°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity95%
Wind7 mph SSE
Gusts15 mph
Wind chill46°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Florida at Kentucky: aerial view of Kroger Field, wind from the SSE at 7.2 mph, gusting to 15 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EST
Venue
Kroger Field
Capacity
61,000
Elevation
1,004 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

FloridaAway KentuckyHome
This week590 miles0 miles
Last week126 miles756 miles
Season total4,030 miles2,013 miles
Body clock19:3019:30
Rest8 days8 days

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