Week 11
Sun Bowl

Jacksonville State30 @FINAL 27UTEP , Week 11, Nov 8, 2025

5-3 CUSA Power rating: -6.7
2-6 CUSA Power rating: -12.1

How did the line hold up?

Market line
JXST -1.5
PM Implied
Pick’em
Blue Chip model
JXST -2.2
Edge
-0.7JXST
See details
◂ favors JXSTfavors UTEP ▸Market: JXST -1.5
‹ 5.4 JXST
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UTEP
no impact
UTEP
UTEP
no impact
1 JXST1 UTEP2 JXST2 UTEPModel: JXST -2.2

Betting information

Spread
JXST -1.5
Total
46.5
Odds implied score
JXST 24.0 – 22.5 UTEP
Prediction markets
UTEP 51% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Jacksonville State defeated UTEP 30–27 in a nail-biter. Jacksonville State covered by 1.5; Game went Over by 10.5. The market closed at Jacksonville State -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Jacksonville State -2.2. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Jacksonville State vs UTEP?

Jacksonville State

Dominant rushing attack

Caden Creel and Cam Cook combined for 259 rushing yards, with Creel adding 134 yards on 13 carries and Cook 127 yards on 19 carries and a touchdown. This ground game was crucial in controlling the clock and setting up the game-winning field goal.

Clutch performance in crunch time

Creel's 31-yard scramble on a 46-yard drive set up Garrison Rippa's 45-yard game-winning field goal with 53 seconds left, showing the team's ability to execute under pressure.

Defensive playmaking

Caleb Nix returned an interception 93 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter, highlighting the defense's ability to create game-changing plays.

Passing game efficiency

Creel completed 15 of 31 passes for 181 yards and a touchdown, including a 77-yard strike to Deondre Johnson on the opening drive, showing the offense's big-play potential.

Conference dominance continues

The win improved Jacksonville State to 5-0 in Conference USA play, demonstrating their strong position in the conference standings and momentum heading into future games.

What were the weather conditions for Jacksonville State vs UTEP?

At kickoff, conditions at Sun Bowl were Clear, 69°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Jacksonville State travels 1,213 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Jacksonville State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Jacksonville State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Jacksonville State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 10.5 points.

How do Jacksonville State and UTEP compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Jacksonville State (-6.7) over UTEP (-12.1) by 5.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UTEP faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UTEP brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Jacksonville State won and Jacksonville State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 8, 2025 Game-time

Clear

69°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity26%
Wind9 mph W
Gusts17 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Jacksonville State at UTEP: aerial view of Sun Bowl, wind from the W at 9.2 mph, gusting to 17 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM MST
Venue
Sun Bowl
Capacity
51,500
Elevation
3,904 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Jacksonville StateAway UTEPHome
This week1,213 miles0 miles
Last week288 miles2,565 miles
Season total4,700 miles6,477 miles
Body clock14:0013:00
Rest10 days10 days