Week 11
Alerus CenterIndoor

North Dakota State15 @FINAL 10North Dakota , Week 11, Nov 8, 2025

9-0 MVFC Power rating: 1.0
0-0 MVFC Power rating: -16.2

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ND St -10.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
ND St -14.7
Edge
-4.2ND St
See details
◂ favors ND Stfavors UND ▸Market: ND St -10.5
‹ 17.2 ND St
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UND
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 ND St2 UND4 ND St4 UNDModel: ND St -14.7

Betting information

Spread
ND St -10.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
ND St 32.0 – 21.5 UND

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

North Dakota State defeated North Dakota 15–10 in a closely contested finish. North Dakota covered by 5.5; Game went Under by 28.5. The market closed at North Dakota State -10.5 and the Blue Chip model made it North Dakota State -14.7 - a gap of 4.2 points toward North Dakota State, of which 3.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for North Dakota State vs North Dakota?

This game was played indoors at Alerus Center in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.

What happened in the game?

North Dakota State travels 71 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

North Dakota State won by 5 in a closely contested finish.

North Dakota covered the spread.

The total went Under by 28.5 points.

How do North Dakota State and North Dakota compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor North Dakota State (1.0) over North Dakota (-16.2) by 17.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, North Dakota faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. North Dakota brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

North Dakota State won and North Dakota covered the spread.

Conditions

Indoor, climate controlled

~72°F

Alerus Center is a domed venue. Wind, precipitation and temperature are not factors in this game.

Wind map for North Dakota State at North Dakota: aerial view of Alerus Center

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM CST
Venue
Alerus Center
Capacity
21,000
Elevation
866 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure North Dakota StateAway North DakotaHome
This week71 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total7,445 miles1,203 miles
Body clock13:0013:00
Rest7 days7 days