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Week 11 •
Canvas Stadium

UNLV42 @FINAL 10Colorado State

6-2 MW Power rating: -1.8
2-6 MW Power rating: -8.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UNLV -5.5
PM Implied
UNLV -3.8
Blue Chip model
UNLV -2.7
Edge
+2.8CSU
See details
◂ favors UNLVfavors CSU ▸Market: UNLV -5.5
‹ 6.4 UNLV
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
CSU
CSU
no impact
CSU
CSU
1 UNLV1 CSU2 UNLV2 CSU3 UNLV3 CSUModel: UNLV -2.7

Betting information

Spread
UNLV -5.5
Total
60.5
Odds implied score
UNLV 33.0 – 27.5 CSU
Prediction markets
UNLV 65% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UNLV defeated Colorado State 42–10 in a dominant performance. UNLV covered by 26.5; Game went Under by 8.5. The market closed at UNLV -5.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UNLV -2.7, an edge of 2.8 points toward Colorado State.

What are the key factors for UNLV vs Colorado State?

Colorado State

Offensive Struggles and Third-Down Inefficiency

Colorado State converted only 1 of 13 third-down attempts, severely limiting their ability to sustain drives and control the clock. This inefficiency contributed to a lopsided 571-292 total yard deficit.

Inability to Stop the Run

UNLV rushed for 320 yards at an average of 7.8 yards per carry, including a 57-yard touchdown run. Colorado State's run defense was consistently gashed, allowing big plays and failing to force UNLV into passing situations.

Slow Start and Inconsistent Scoring

Despite an early 3-yard touchdown pass from Jackson Brousseau to Rocky Beers and a field goal, the offense managed only 10 points. The team failed to build on the early lead and was outscored 28-0 after the first quarter.

Quarterback Play and Passing Game Limitations

The passing attack was limited, with no deep threats or consistent completions beyond short gains. The offense lacked explosiveness, which allowed UNLV to stack the box and focus on stopping the run.

Defensive Lapses and Big Plays Allowed

Colorado State's defense gave up multiple explosive plays, including a 68-yard touchdown pass and a 57-yard run. These big plays quickly shifted momentum and put the Rams in a deep hole they could not recover from.

What were the weather conditions for UNLV vs Colorado State?

At kickoff, conditions at Canvas Stadium were Clear, 30°F, wind chill 25°F with winds of 4 mph. At 30°F this is a freezing game. Cold is a scoring-environment factor rather than a side factor: Blue Chip has not measured a reliable spread effect from temperature. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UNLV travels 629 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

UNLV arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

UNLV won by 32 in a dominant performance.

UNLV covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 8.5 points.

How do UNLV and Colorado State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UNLV (-1.8) over Colorado State (-8.2) by 6.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Colorado State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Colorado State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on UNLV and Colorado State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UNLV won and UNLV covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 9, 2025 Game-time

Clear

30°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity55%
Wind4 mph SW
Gusts8 mph
Wind chill25°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for UNLV at Colorado State: aerial view of Canvas Stadium, wind from the SW at 4 mph, gusting to 7.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 11
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM MST
Venue
Canvas Stadium
Capacity
41,000
Elevation
5,010 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

UNLVAway Colorado StateHome
This week629 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total8,744 miles3,791 miles
Body clock18:3019:30
Rest8 days15 days

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