ESPN Bet · as of July 10, 2026
Troy defeated Nicholls 38–20 to secure a comfortable win. Troy covered by 1.5; Game went Over by 11.5. The market closed at Troy -16.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Troy -22.0 - a gap of 5.5 points toward Troy, of which 4.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Nicholls managed only 249 total yards, with quarterback Deuce Hogan completing 21 of 27 passes for 184 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The offense was inefficient on third downs, converting just 4 of 11 attempts.
The defense allowed 272 rushing yards, including a 47-yard run, and gave up 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Troy's ground game dominated, with Tae Meadows rushing for 186 yards and a touchdown.
Nicholls failed to record a sack or significant pressure on Troy's quarterback, allowing Goose Crowder to complete 14 of 24 passes for 144 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 43 yards and a score.
Hogan's interception was a key negative, as Nicholls did not force any turnovers from Troy. This -1 turnover margin contributed to the inability to keep the game close in the fourth quarter.
After a competitive first three quarters, Nicholls was outscored 21-0 in the fourth quarter. The team's inability to sustain drives or stop Troy's rushing attack led to a decisive loss.
Troy rushed for 272 yards as a team, led by Tae Meadows with 186 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. This ground game was key to wearing down Nicholls and controlling the clock, suggesting Troy can rely on a strong run game moving forward.
After trailing or tied for most of the game, Troy scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, including a rushing touchdown from quarterback Goose Crowder and two passing touchdowns. This resilience shows the team's ability to execute under pressure and finish strong.
Goose Crowder completed 14 of 24 passes for 144 yards and three touchdowns, while also adding 43 rushing yards and a score. His dual-threat capability provides versatility and a reliable option in critical situations.
Troy's defense recorded four sacks and eight tackles for loss, holding Nicholls to 249 total yards and 4 of 11 on third downs. This defensive performance indicates a strong unit that can disrupt opposing offenses and create opportunities for the offense.
Troy struggled early, trailing or tied until the fourth quarter, but ultimately pulled away. This pattern suggests the team may need to improve early-game execution to avoid falling behind against tougher opponents, but their ability to adjust and dominate late is a positive sign.
At kickoff, conditions at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) were Fog, 69°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Fog
69°F
| Measure | NichollsAway | TroyHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 320 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Bye week | Bye week |
| Season total | 320 miles | 0 miles |
| Body clock | 18:00 | 18:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | Season opener |
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